We may hate them, but we need them…Carolina that is. The Yankees need the Red Sox. Connors wouldn’t be Connors without McEnroe. Hell, who’s Tom without Jerry. You may hate your rivals, but lord knows, its just not the same when they’re not up to par.
Sure it’s fun to see the Tar Heels stuck in last place, yes last place, but we’re going to face them again in two weeks and that game will be meaningless. Sure I like beating UNC, but it just feels better when it’s the two heavyweights fighting for the title.
Of course, we’ve been through this before recently. The decade began with Carolina struggling through the Matt Doherty era. Sure Maryland stepped up to the plate. We won a title, they won a title and the two teams played in some of the most memorable games ever.
But Maryland is not North Carolina, never will be, no matter how hard they want to be. So I can’t help but look ahead now, even before the season begins, to see if North Carolina will claw their way back at the top.
Before we look ahead though, we have to see what’s gone wrong now.
Despite losing four players to the NBA, North Carolina was ranked in the top five in almost all pre-season polls and was picked by most local writers to finish tied with Duke for first in the ACC. Of course after some early wins over Michigan State and Ohio State, the ranking looked about right.
Yet, that was then and this is now. Now is a team barely above .500. They’ve not only lost 10 of 13 ACC games, they’ve barely been competitive in about half those games. So what’s been the problem?
The obvious answer is the guard play. Despite having a solid front court combo of Thompson & Davis, the guards have struggled. They’ve been inconsistent on offense, miserable at long-range shooting and at times their defense has been down-right embarrassing. Are they just that bad? No, not really (those are seven McDonald’s All-Americans we’re talking about). They’re just inexperienced.
It’s easy to just stare at the name on front of the jerseys and forget this is a team full of underclassmen. Their basic 11-man rotation consist of three sophomores and five freshman.
Over the years we’ve seen such great things from freshman like Oden, Durant, Rose and now Walls, it’s understandable that we forget most incoming freshman make little to no impact their first year.
How many teams would win a ton of games with a eight underclassmen, bad point guard play, mixed in with a pile of injuries to key players? Not many.
SO WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR OUR RIVALS?
Obviously, if you’ve been paying attention, you’re well aware that Coach Williams has another solid recruitment class coming in, led by ESPN’S No 1 high school player, Harrison Barnes. They also have PG Kendall Marshall (rated #6 PG) and shooting guard Reggie Bullock (rated #3 SG) also coming in.
While there is little doubt Harrison Barnes won’t make an immediate impact (you don’t get the No 1 rating for nothing), time will tell if either Marshall or Bullock will make an immediate impact. According to Scout.com, Marshall is an excellent passer, but needs to work on his outside shot. Bullock on the other hand is an ace on the outside, but doesn’t have the mid-range shot or strength to scare anyone inside.
Of course the big question mark for next year’s team is Ed Davis. Like we speculated last week, he surprised everyone staying for his sophomore year, but no one foresaw him coming back after this season. Yet, he’s now out for the season and maybe the injury is a blessing. While Davis is still projected to be a lottery pick, he sure hasn’t impressed me that much this season (luckily for him, I’m not the one he needs to impress). One more year as the main man underneath might do him some good. Of course, if you’re a lottery pick already, one more year could just make it worse. Right, Josh McRoberts?
For the remainder of this post, we’re going to assume Ed Davis says goodbye to college and hello to the NBA.
SO WHAT DOES THAT LEAVE OUR RIVALS?
That leaves us with a Carolina team stacked with guards/wing players, but thin in the middle.
Inside, Zeller will get the start along with Jon Henson. The only backups will be the Wear brothers. Zeller is a pretty good athlete for a seven-footer, but the problem has always been his health. He’s missed more games than he’s played.
At power forward, Henson is oozing with talent (remember his block party against Duke this season), but early on he was just plain bad. While he’s certainly looks a lot better of late, he’s going to need to hit the weigh room if he’s going to start playing 25+ per game in the ACC.
In the back court/small forward spot, Coach Williams has some big decisions to make. He has a ton of players for only three spots. Obviously Harrison Barnes will take over at small forward (although I can’t really use the word “small” since he’s really 6′8). That leaves the guard spots, which if you can believe it or not, will most likely be filled with the same two guards starting this season; Larry Drew & Will Graves.
You might find this shocking, considering the struggles the Tar Heels have had this season. Yet in reality, the same weaknesses Drew has, Marshall has. The same weaknesses Graves has, Bullock has. Fact is, you have to assume both Drew (a junior) and Graves (a senior) will get better.
If I’m right, then look for Marshall to be the main backup at point. If he can surprise us all and show that he can indeed hit an outside shot, then he could find himself the starter later in the season. I don’t want to offend Larry Drew, but Marshall has so much more potential.
Anyhow, while Strickland has been the backup point guard this season, he was a shooting guard in high school. Look for him to become just “a guard” off the bench. Bullock should also get plenty of minutes off the bench as a long range bomber. At 6′6, he could easily backup Barnes at small forward. If anyone gets left out, right now it looks like Leslie McDonald.
For now…
CAROLINA STARTERS:(PG) Drew, (SG) Graves, (SF) Barnes, (PF) Henson, (C) Zeller
CAROLINA BENCH: (PG) Marshall, (SG) Strickland, (G/F) Bullock, (SG) McDonald,
