Yesterday, Duke loss to Georgetown in DC and now is 17-4 on the season. In the loss, Duke allowed Georgetown to score 89 points and shoot 72% from the floor. One of our favorite writers, Patrick Stevens, took a look at Duke's defense on his blog...
But typically, teams not named North Carolina don't dissect Duke in a first (or only) meeting as N.C. State and Georgetown did.
Want proof? Here's the list of the last 20 times Duke gave up 85 points in a game before Feb. 1 prior to this season:
Jan. 21, 2006: @Georgetown 87, Duke 84
Jan. 18, 2003: @Maryland 87, Duke 72
Jan. 15, 2003: @Duke 104, Virginia 93
Jan. 8, 2003: @Duke 93, Georgetown 86
Dec. 18, 2001: Duke 95, Kentucky 92 in East Rutherford, N.J.
Jan. 27, 2001: Duke 98, @Maryland 96 (OT)
Nov. 17, 2000: @Duke 98, Villanova 85
Jan. 19, 2000: @Duke 92, N.C. State 88
Jan. 5, 2000: Duke 109, @Virginia 100
Dec. 11, 1999: Duke 104, @Michigan 97
Jan. 24, 1999: Duke 92, @St. John's 88 (OT)
Dec. 9, 1998: @Duke 116, Florida 86
Nov. 26, 1997: Duke 95, Arizona 87 in Lahaina, Hawaii
Jan. 7, 1997: @Clemson 86, Duke 82 (OT)
Nov. 29, 1996: Indiana 85, Duke 69 in New York
Jan. 14, 1995: Virginia 91, @Duke 88 (2OT)
Nov. 29, 1994: Connecticut 90, Duke 86 in Auburn Hills, Mich.
Jan. 24, 1993: @Florida State 89, Duke 88 (OT)
Jan. 21, 1992: Duke 95, @Boston U. 85
Dec. 14, 1991: Duke 88, @Michigan 85 (OT)So to put this into context, Duke allowed 14 opponents in the previous 18 years to score 85 points in a regulation game played before Feb. 1. Then it happened twice in a week and a half.
Let's take a look at those 2 losses a little closer and see what they have in common. In the Georgetown game, the Hoyas shot 82% from 2 point range in the game. If you look at the NC State game, you see something similar, 63% point shooting from inside the arc. With the way Duke overplays, this screams to me that Duke's help defense & recover methods just aren't working. The Blue Devils somewhat expect the ball to get around their primary defender, although they would certainly prefer it not happen. It's how they help and recover that is important and this Duke team just isn't doing a good job of it. Further NC State and Georgetown both exploited it by simply spreading the court and making the recover paths much longer.
You can be sure Mike Krzyzewski and his staff are looking for a way to resolve this, but I'd propose playing a bit more zone. Duke's version, called "Orange" (likely as a tribute to K's friend Jim Boeheim) features Lance Thomas playing the point of a 3-2ish zone. Duke has been successful for stretches during games and it may be the answer for Duke's inability to stop penetration.
