Now we are in to the meat of the college basketball season, here's where you can truly tell how your good your team really is. I've always felt that you can only put so much stock into what happens in the non conference schedule, especially if you're a power conference team like the ACC. At this point, every team is at least three games over .500, with Boston College holding that mark at 10-7 overall. You can look at a team like Miami who went undefeated (14-0) in the non conference schedule, but is off to a 1-2 start in conference play.
I don't think many people expected Virginia to be the lone undefeated team in conference play two games in to the conference schedule. But the Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, having won six straight, including two over top 25 teams (UAB and Georgia Tech). It really seems like the players are really buying in to Tony Bennett's system. It seems to have taken a couple of games to do so, but after a blowout loss to South Florida, the Cavs have been very competitive in every game, with the other three losses coming by a combined nine points. The principles of Tony Bennett's system are prevalent, as Virginia is near the bottom of the conference in points per game near the top in fewest points allowed, but have the lowest turnover average in the conference. It totals up to be fourth in the ACC in offensive efficiency, and second in defensive efficiency, which explains why Virginia is 10-4 at this point of the season.
I'm worried if I'm a North Carolina fan. They have only won once outside of Chapel Hill, and have yet to win a true road game this season. They are 11-1 at home (they were the home team in New York City against Syracuse for that loss...try to figure that one out...) and are 0-3 on the road, including a horrible loss to College of Charleston. It doesn't matter to me if you're down two starters. You should still win that game. You're North Carolina. You should beat a team like that every time you go out on the floor. It should be assumed that UNC makes the NCAA tournament, but if this trend keeps up, I would be very nervous if I pick them to go past the first weekend. Roy Williams needs to find a way to get this team to play better on the road.
I think one of the most underrated players in the ACC is Reggie Jackson of Boston College. I think he has the chance to be the next Greivis Vasquez in terms of all around stats. At 6-3, Jackson is a very good rebounder for his size (6.1 per game), and can shoot (43.5% from the field). His only major flaw right now is that he turns the ball over way too much (2.6 per game) and if you go back and look at the stats from the games Boston College has lost, Jackson's assist to turnover ratio has generally been very poor, around a 1/1 ratio or worse. If he can work on cutting down on the turnovers, and turn some of those turnovers into assists, then not only will his play improve, but the Eagles play will improve as well. He's only a sophomore, and has plenty of time to develop, and it will not surprise me at some point down the road if we see a triple-double game out of him.
If I were to speculate right now, I think the ACC has six teams that will be in the NCAA tournament come March. Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, and Wake Forest are for sure in. Miami could very well be in, but I want to see more from them before putting them in. Their strength of schedule is ranked 308 out of 347 teams. If they struggle in ACC play, then their chance of getting in will be a lot more difficult. If they can finish at .500, then they will be in. Virginia Tech has a chance to be in too. Their RPI is a little better than Maryland (58), but their strength of schedule is in the 240 range, and the conference schedule will help, but they will need more quality wins than Maryland would to offset that.
