Looking at the Numbers: ACC's First Round Games - SCACCHoops.com
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Looking at the Numbers: ACC's First Round Games

by WebMaster

Posted: 3/17/2009 5:09:23 AM


With our new analysis tool Bracket Brains we're going to dig in and breakdown the ACC's first round matchups.  Keep in mind the information we're showing is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes all of the info you can get from Bracket Brains

 

On the right you'll see tables breaking down each of the matchups for the ACC teams in the first round.  Bracket Brains uses several algorithms to give their subscribers the information they need to make informed decisions.

Other things they also give you that you'll have to see on their site include...

  • Projected Box Scores
  • Win Odds
  • Ability to Create Your Custom Algorithms
  • Team Stats & Splits

Below, we've given descriptions of the algorithms they use...

 

Defining  the Algorithms

Our Similar Games Model uses data driven algorithms to identify historical NCAA tournament games that featured statistically alike teams competing under similar matchup circumstances.


Our Predictive Power Ratings Model iteratively analyzes data on every intra-Division I NCAA basketball game result this season. In the end, every team receives a simple numerical rating (e.g. 52.4 or 84.7) indicative of its actual, documented, proven track record at outscoring opponents.


Adjusted scoring margin (ASM) calculations measure teams based on whether they score more or fewer points than their opponents on average give up, and vice versa. It's a somewhat similar theory to predictive power ratings but implemented in a different way. Every team has both an offensive and defensive ASM, and the sum of these two numbers is a team's overall ASM.

 

 

 

 

#4 Wake Forest vs #13 Cleveland State

Expected Win Margin
Algorithmic Model WAKE CLST
Similar Games +6.6 -6.6
Predictive Power Ratings +5.6 -5.6
Advanced ASM +10.1 -10.1
Simple ASM +8.7 -8.7
Simulation +12.2 -12.2
Vegas Point Spread -7.5 +7.5
Projected Final Score
Algorithmic Model WAKE CLST
Advanced ASM 74.0 63.8
Simulation 76.9 64.7

 

 #7 Boston College vs #10 USC

Expected Win Margin
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