
With just a handful of games left in the regular season, things have taken shape in the ACC. UNC is the leader in the conference, a game clear in the loss column of Clemson and Duke, and two games ahead of Wake Forest and the surprise of the season, Florida State. As far as I'm concerned, those five are locks. It gets a little dicey after that. Boston College, Maryland, and Virginia Tech are all in the mix.
I like Boston College's chances to get in. They have been playing very well this season, and it hasn't completely been the Tyrese Rice show. The Eagles have also been getting some solid contributions from Joe Trapani, the team's leading rebounder, Rakim Sanders, and Corey Raji, among others. They have some big wins against UNC, Duke, and Florida State. They have also shown the ability to win on the road, with a 5-4 record away from their home court. Plus, they also have a neutral court win against UAB, who is also on the tourney bubble. Overall, the Eagles are 20-9, with two games left, at NC State and home for Georgia Tech, which to me equals a 22-9 record and a 10-6 conference record. And 10 conference wins should get them in, even though they have that really bad loss to Harvard.
Maryland is right behind them in the conference at 6-6 and 17-9 overall, and just like Boston College, have a really bad home loss on their schedule, which was to Morgan State. The Terps do have the big win at home against UNC, where Greivis Vazquez basically put the team on his shoulders and carried them to the upset win. Aside from that, Maryland also has a neutral court win against Michigan State when they played a non-conference tournament early in November. The problem with Maryland is that they have failed to show up quite a few times, in particular a 41 point loss to Duke and a 29 point loss to Clemson. If Maryland is going to get in to the NCAA tournament, they will need to win their remaining four games on their schedule: home for Duke and Wake Forest, at NC State and at Virginia. With the way Maryland has played, they could just as easily go 4-0 or 0-4. If they can win out and go 10-6, then they're a lock. But lose out, and there's no chance. If they split those reamining four games, they will have to have one of those home games to help boost the resume.
Virginia Tech is also 6-6 in the conference and 16-10 overall. Unfortunately, the Hokies have lost three straight, and are falling out of the NCAA tournament picture, and need wins fast. They don't have many impressive wins on their schedule. They did beat Wake Forest on the road when Wake was ranked number one, and did beat Boston College at home, but that's really it. They had a bad loss against Georgia, who fired their coach not long after that win. I've been a little disappointed in the Hokies this season. I though they would be a sleeper team in the ACC. Aside from Malcolm Delaney, A.D. Vassallo, and Jeff Allen, no one else scores for them. The fourth highest scorere on the team doesn't even average five points per game. And when Jeff Allen missed the Virginia game, they weren't really in the game at all.
As for the remaining schedule for the Hokies, they have four really tough contesets: at Clemson, Duke and UNC at home, and at Florida State. I have a hard time thinking they can win at Clemson, but I think they have a chance in the other three games. I think they will need to at least split to be a thought in the tourney picture. They might have to win three to be in the mix.
I think it is possible for the ACC to get eight teams into the NCAA tournament. Right now, I think it's more likely for seven teams to get in, but if Virginia Tech can get hot and win some games, then eight teams from the ACC is certainly possible. |