Straight stats…because I know you guys like that.
After seeing yet another opposing guard put up 30-plus on the Heels I decided to delve into the numbers to see what the difference between last season and this season was in terms of opposing guards’ offensive production in ACC play. The table below shows the points per game by opposing guards and team three point percentage. Note that the ppg average is derived from taking all the points scored by any player listed as a G or G-F in the box score.
| Teams vs UNC | 2008 | 2009 |
| Games Played | 16 | 13 |
| Team PPG | 75.9 | 76.7 |
| Guards PPG | 41.75 | 47.0 |
| Guard % of Total | 55% | 61% |
| Gms 3 Guards in Dbl Figures | 6 | 5 |
| Team 3P% | 33% | 37.8% |
| Gms 3P% 35% or higher | 7 | 9 |
| Average 3PM | 7.6 | 8 |
| Average 3PA | 23.1 | 22 |
| 3PM High | 13 | 13 |
| Gms Guards Total 40+ | 9 | 9 |
| Gms Guards Total 50+ | 5 | 4 |
| Gms Guards Total High | 64 | 78 |
| Gms Guards Total Low | 19 | 25 |
| Individual Guard 20+ | 9 | 11 |
| Individual Guard 30+ | 2 | 5 |
| Individual Guard High | 46 | 35(twice) |
| Individual Guard Low* | 10 | 11 |
*Leading scorer among guards
The two stats that instantly jump out are the guards PPG against UNC and the overall three point percentage. To absoultely no one’s surprise opposing teams are shooting the three better against the Heels and opposing perimeter players are scoring more per game. And to the credit of ACC coaches they have been very good about going to this particular well. While UNC’s points allowed average went up only slightly(76.7 vs 75.9) the percentage of those points coming off the guards increased from 55% to 61%. It is also clear that UNC was less apt to give up “the big game” by one player. In 2008 only twice did an opposing guard go for 30-plus on the Heels. Clemson’s Cliff Hammonds did it in the 2OT game at Chapel Hill and Tyrese Rice went for 46 in the game at Boston College. This season it has happened five times. In 2008 UNC had six games in which they allowed three perimeter players to score in double figures. This season that is five with three games left. In those five games UNC is 3-2. In games where a single player goes for 30-plus, UNC is 3-2. In terms of opposing three point shooting, nine times this season teams have shot 35% or better. In six of those games it was over 40% and twice teams have gone over 50%. In 2008 35% or better shooting happened seven times, four of those over 40% and zero games over 50%. The best anyone shot against the Heels in 2008 was the Tyrese Rice goes nuts game at BC where the Eagles shot 47% from three. Most of that was Rice. This season UNC allowed NCSU and UVa to shoot 50% or better.
The question everyone wants answer to is: Why? Some possibilities.
1. Marcus Ginyard
This is probably 75% of it and it will be very hard to convince me otherwise. And spare me the whole UNC is still talented enough to compensate, blah blah blah. Ginyard is a lock down defender. He is 6-5 and knows how to play defense against the type of players who have scorched UNC. The truth is Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green cannot defend on the ball the way Ginyard could. Granted he is not Jackie Manuel but he was clearly head and shoulders above everyone else in a Tar Heel uniform when it comes to guarding someone. Also understand that I am not laying the whole ball of wax on Ginyard. Obviously he cannot guard everyone and these stats indicate that team defense as a whole has fallen off but I think that is fruit of the posionous tree. Looking at these numbers you see that opposing teams are shooting the ball 5% better from three and scoring six more ppg with their guards than last season. We have clear cases of teams getting more production from their guards and UNC has fallen victim to the “hot shooter” five times, more if you count guys like BC’s Reggie Jackson or MD’s Cliff Tucker. Those kind of performances were rarer a year ago. The difference between this season and last is Marcus Ginyard is not playing in 2009. You do the math.
2. Guard play in the ACC is drastically improved.
I think this is part of it. On one hand there are some great guards in the ACC and many of them having real breakthrough seasons. That being said some of the players who went for 30-plus played the Heels last season and were nowhere near the same neighborhood. What that means is yes these players are going to do more damage than last season but should not have been able to make the jump from scoring 18 to 34 like Wake’s Jeff Teague did. Take maturing guards in concert with #1 and you might have something.
3. Opposing coaches got wise
Give some credit to the guys on the other bench who have figured out UNC does not defend the perimeter well. If you scout UNC you are a fool to use any offense that does not weight towards taking outside shots. Heck even Leonard Hamilton figured out it should be the Toney Douglas Show when the Heels played FSU and could have won the game had he also
