For the 3rd straight season Duke has jumped out to a great start and has hit a rough patch during conference play. It got me to thinking about Duke's record by month. We went back 5 years, and here is what we get...
- November: 33-2
- December: 29-2
- January: 45-5
- February: 31-15
- March: 22-13
- April: 0-1
Not exactly finishing strong, is it? So, what are the reasons behind the failure to finish? Let's take a look...
Fatigue
There is no debate that the Blue Devils play as hard and aggressive as any team in the nation, but do the numbers show fatigue? I'd argue that two areas bothered by fatigure more than anything else, are rebounds and FG%. In both cases, Duke's numbers decrease as the team gets further into the season...
FG% By Month
- November: 48.1%
- December: 49.7%
- January: 47.1%
- February: 43.4%
- March: 44.2%
- April: 40.8%
Rebounds Per Game By Month
- November: 34.0 rpg
- December: 33.9 rpg
- January: 33.1 rpg
- February: 31.7 rpg
- March: 33.4 rpg
- April: 36.0 rpg
Reliance on the Three Point Shot
Duke certainly likes the three point shot, but as many have pointed out the effectiveness on the shot decreases significantly as the three point percentage gets closer to 33.3%. The following numbers show that as the season progresses, Duke relies more and more upon the three point shot and shoots less and less effectively.
3PA/FGA By Month (in other words..the percentage of field goal attempts from behind the arc)
- November: 32.7%
- December: 34.3%
- January: 33.9%
- February: 36.8%
- March: 37.5%
- April: 30.9%
3P% By Month
- November: 38.4%
- December: 38.1%
- January: 35.2%
- February: 36.5%
- March: 34.4%
- April: 27.3%
Other Things To Consider
The two items above are two of several theories that are bouncing around sports talk radio in Durham, NC. Some others to consider that we can't necessarily put numbers to...
- A decline in recruiting - Is there an Olympic effect on K's recruiting?
- A failure to adapt - Has the ACC figured out Duke's scheme and learned a way to attack it?
- Has Duke become "too white"? I've heard it hinted at in many different politically correct ways.
- Has Duke's non-conference scheduling changed and focused on playing an easier schedule?
Basically, it comes down to this, Duke has created a level of excellence that they are finding a hard time to live up to. Particularly, the Blue Devils have trended down in the months of February and March. It appears at the very least that Duke has shown signs of fatigue and a higher reliance on the three point shot as each of the last 5 seasons have gone along. Will this team continue as prior years suggest?
As always, let us know your thoughts and comments below.
