If offered a split of last week’s games, I would have picked a win over Notre Dame if following my head and a win over Villanova if following my heart.
Defeating an opponent likely to finish close to us in the conference standings carries more practical value for ACC Tournament seeding, but standings aside, we’ve only beaten the #1 team in the country once in the last 30 years and haven’t since I’ve been paying attention. Beating the national champs on the road would have been fun, which is why I’m into this in the first place. However you slice it, this was a good week in Virginia basketball. Soundly beating Notre Dame and following that by combining a peek at a potential March rotation, the emergence of Ty Jerome, and giving Villanova all they can handle into 40 minutes will work for me (though I still want the middle five minutes of the second half back)
This week, my head and heart are united behind a common goal: pouring it on Virginia Tech. Where I could afford to dismiss the Tech game and the idea that the rivalry even carried over to basketball as recently as 2014, Buzz Williams has made it mean something — for better or worse.
Tech fans approach basketball games with Virginia with a chip on their shoulder, seeking to show that our success in basketball isn’t really that special (and that we’re not so far ahead of them). Virginia fans, meanwhile, seek to defend our position in what we want to be the natural order of things (and really want to have something prominent — sorry, almost every other sport — to claim as ours). As for me, I’m shook from years of being the little brother in the football rivalry; meetings with the Hokies make me more nervous than say BC, because I’m nervous that Tech is inching closer. I hope Buzz Williams gets a big check from somewhere fun, and gets it soon.
This Hokie team has its share of flaws (depth and defense for starters), but it’s probably the best one Buzz Williams has fielded in three years in Blacksburg. They’ve got the wins to prove it, beating Michigan in the ACC-B1G Challenge and Duke in their conference opener, and have managed to avoid the inexplicable losses to sub-200 level teams that have marked some of the last few seasons (though giving up 100-plus and losing by 26 to NC State isn’t a good look for anyone).
The Hokies are getting closer to the Buzz ideal, racing up the floor (71.2 possessions per 40 minutes) and scoring 1.14 points per possession for the season and 1.09 in ACC play, fueled by a wise approach that sees them get more total points from free throws and threes (51.7%) than they do from two point baskets (48.3%). The Hokies run a four out/one in motion offense that emphasizes big guys that can face the basket and create their own shot (Zach LeDay) and threes — lots of threes — from the likes of Justin Bibbs, Ahmed Hill, Seth Allen, and Justin Robinson. Chris Clarke (12 ppg) doesn’t fit into any of that, but he’s an anthropomorphized wrecking ball with designs on the rim once he gets out into space.
The Hokies are shooting close to 40% (39.5%) from the arc in ACC play and lead the league in two point percentage (55.2%), with only blocked shots (almost 16% of their attempts) and turnovers (a mediocre 17.3% turnover rate thanks to five per game from the PG team of Allen and Robinson) keeping their offense from hitting the next level.
Tech is not a very deep team (they go eight deep), but they don’t lose much when they go to their bench and spread minutes pretty evenly among the eight; in fact, the two Hokies (LeDay and Seth Allen) I’m most concerned about have only combined for seven starts in Tech’s 21 games.
I’ll start with Zach LeDay. The senior leads Tech in scoring (16.1 ppg), rebounds (6.7) and has attempted the most shots by far (227) on a mostly democratic group with four regulars that have taken between 149 and 162. LeDay tortured AG and Isaiah in the Hokies’ upset win in Cassell last January, driving past Gill and slipping past ‘Zay to the perimeter to score 22, hit three threes, and grab three offensive boards (before being limited to seven and committing four turnovers in the return match). LeDay can get places with two dribbles (and shoots 66% at the rim) and while he’s not the deadeye jump shooter he was in that upset win last year, he can still pop it occasionally (37.5% 2pt jumpers, 9–33 on threes).
As for Allen, you have to look past his ignominious decision making off the floor — attending Maryland, deciding not to transfer to Virginia, and choosing Virginia Tech instead —to objectively evaluate his game. I’m trying. Allen’s made a leap in his senior year, upping his percentage to 63.5% on twos (previous career high: 47.3%) and 48.5% on threes (prev high: 38.5%) in averaging 12.4 points and 3.6 assists in 28.2 minutes per game off the bench. London and Allen have a long history, and Allen probably played his best games against us when he was a sophomore at Maryland and London was a freshman, going for a combined 35 in two meetings. He’s strong and quick, and keeping him out of the lane will be key.
Tech has five guys with at least 20 made threes. Ahmed Hill (13 ppg, 48–115, 41.7%) and the streaky Justin Bibbs (8.8, 37–94, 39.4%) are the high volume guys, Allen has become a sharpshooter, Justin Robinson (35%) can throw one in, and junior forward Ty Outlaw has made six of his last 10 and is at 41% for the season.
Williams went to a zone three games ago in an effort to bolster Tech’s anemic defensive rebounding and prevent dribble penetration, and I’m not sure that it’s working. While Tech has won two of three, they’ve surrendered scorching efficiency marks of 118, 139.1, and 113.4 and allowed those three teams to make a ridiculous 39 of 86 three point attempts (like Pitt’s explosion against us three times) in those games. Tech’s a decent (71.2%) defensive rebounding team that doesn’t force a lot of turnovers or defend the paint well — hallmarks of small teams.
Tempo will be key tonight. The Hokies take almost a quarter of their shots (22%) in transition, which gets them both dives to the rim for the likes of Clarke and Allen and open threes for the others — something that dinged us a few times when Villanova was making their game-changing run in the second half on Sunday. It’s not just transition I’m worried about, though; we’re also going to need to get our defense set early after makes or dead balls. Tech loves to try to push off of two passes and a screen to generate looks for a jumper. London Perrantes will be challenged to keep Justin Robinson and Seth Allen (you can see how he’s progressed as a defender by using his performances against Allen like a growth chart) out of the lane. If the Pack can get set and we can contest on the perimeter with Shayok and Hall, I like our chances of making them take 18–25 seconds to find a shot.
I’d like to see us use our size and strength advantage to dominate the Hokies on the glass on both ends. Jack has proven that he can stay on the floor with four-out teams and Isaiah has been sniffing a double-double (three games of double-digit scoring and at least eight boards) for weeks, so our starting bigs are playing like they’re up to it. Buzz doesn’t place much importance on offensive rebounding (much like CTB, he prefers to get his defense set), so there will be little excuse for not locking down the glass on the defensive end.
Offensively, I’m less worried. If Tech keeps dabbling in zone, I’d like to see us not settle for early threes and work the ball around for a better look (which can also be a three — I hope we take a good amount, as we’re hitting 43% of ’em in ACC games). We’ve seen so many different looks this season between WVU, the junk defenses Georgia Tech threw at London, Villanova and Clemson’s short presses, and so on, that I’m not worried about the adjustment period we’ve sometimes seen when faced with a zone.
Virginia:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
London‘s free throw rate is 22.6, which means he takes 22.6 free throw attempts for every 100 shots from the floor. He’s taking threes at the lowest rate of his career too, which means he’s not just sitting on the perimeter. Something doesn’t add up, here. I know LP isn’t explosive and is kind of small, but he’s going straight into contact.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
Devon only had seven points against Louisville but added three rebounds, three assists, and a steal. He only took one two pointer, but he was still driving aggressively: two of his moves to the rim ended in dunks for Isaiah.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial played well at Villanova; he probably should have scored a few more points from the line. At 13.9 per game in seven games since the new year, is it time to break out the “Is Marial Shayok a low-key star?” posts?
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Wilkins since the calendar turned: 9.1 points per game on 62% shooting, 7.6 boards per (including 16 offensive boards), games of four assists, two steals, and five blocks. We’re operating at pretty close to peak Isaiah right now.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
Salt has three offensive boards (and has played at least 20 minutes) in three straight games. He *almost* had more points than fouls (20/22) for the month of January.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
I don’t know what to make of Darius as an offensive threat, but at the least, I hope he keeps touching the paint, dishing (multiple assists in every game last month), and making threes (7–17 in January). Knowing how he can get up and throw down, I’d love to see him attack the rim more.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
My beliefs that Kyle Guy is a very good basketball player, that Guy is not playing very good basketball right now, and that Guy should still be on the floor and can still help can all coexist.
G: Ty Jerome — 6'5'’ fr #11
There’s a lot of Ty in here:
VT:
G: Justin Robinson — 6'1'’ so #5
Weird Robinson stat: in Tech’s four January wins, he averaged 3.8 points per game. In their four losses, he averaged 13.8. It suggests that when Tech is rolling, they’re getting better looks for better scorers and don’t need him to run pick and rolls to try to spur the offense along. Robinson’s shifty and can get into the lane, but his handle (22.5% TO rate) is a little loose.
G: Ahmed Hill — 6'5'’ jr #13
Slumping some: he’s 2–13 on threes over Tech’s last five games and has only hit double digits twice in that span. Hill also only has two assists in 112 minutes in those games.
F: Justin Bibbs — 6'5'’ jr #10
Bibbs has my attention; he’s the kind of player that can fortify a run with a couple of threes and then catch fire. He might not shoot enough (he hasn’t taken more than eight treys in a game) and doesn’t offer much else (single digit rebound and assist rates), but deep range and a green light are enough.
F: Chris Clarke — 6'6'’ so #15
Clarke compares to a guy like Justin Anderson: he’s a fierce athlete who dabbles in everything on the floor. His defensive rebound rate (22%) is great, his assist rate (20.9%) is high, and he’s great at rim running and getting to the line (103 FT attempts already). He’s less effective in the half court, as he’s not a jump shooter or a particularly adept handler, but they do like to run him off of baseline cuts like teams used to for Shawn Marion.
C: Khadim Sy — 6'10'’ fr #2
Sy is a placeholder for LeDay, like a ringer designed to win the opening tip. He rebounds (11% OREB, 17.8% DREB) and blocks some shots, but he’s not staying on the floor enough to be game planned around.
G: Seth Allen — 6'1'’ sr #4
16.3 points, 3.8 assists, 55.2% 3PT over Tech’s last six games, with nary a stinker in the list. Suffice it to say, Allen is feeling himself right now.
F: Zach LeDay — 6'7'’ sr #32
LeDay has hit double figures in every game this season except their loss to Texas A&M. I expect Isaiah and Marial to share primary responsibility for him, though I’d be remiss in not saying I’d love to see Mamadi Diakite unearthed to take a shift.
F: Ty Outlaw — 6'6'’ jr #42
Redshirt junior JC transfer has provided nice-if-limited wing depth for Tech.
Verdict:
This is a better Tech team than the ones who have lost their last four at JPJ by an average of 17 points, but it’s hard to see us dropping this one. We’re going to score points against Tech’s droopy defense, and it’s not likely that they’re going to be able to score efficiently enough to keep up, especially given that the defense has been looking up over the last couple of weeks. If it all goes through like it’s supposed to, this one should be a win.
