Game Preview: Virginia at Pitt - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Virginia at Pitt

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 2/6/2016 8:02:17 AM


This is Pitt’s third season in the ACC, but they’ve already bore the brunt of some of my favorite plays of the Bennett era.

Malcolm calmly drilled this three for the win in our first regular season meeting (a slugfest at Pitt):

And then, later that same season, Justin Anderson rose for a clean block on this James Robinson three point trie to save a narrow ACC Tournament win:

Pitt started the season 14-1 and won their first three ACC games, and sit at 17-4 (6-3) going into tomorrow. On paper and out of context, they look like an offensive juggernaut. They’re fourth in the ACC in efficiency in league games (111.0), are high on threes (37.9% made), low on turnovers (16.2% of possessions) under the steady guidance of James Robinson, and collect their own misses (grabbing 36.2% of offensive boards). Michael Young (17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds) handles business on the inside as a scorer and creator for cutting teammates, Jamel (“Con”) Artis (15.5 points, 3.3 assists, 38.5% 3PT) takes care of things on the wing, and the supporting cast — Sterling Smith drilling threes (47.2% for the season), Robinson working his herky-jerky game into the lane to find teammates (5.3 apg, 31.2% assist rate), and Sheldon Jeter dunking on people — fills out the box score.

Defense has been a different story. ACC opponents are making 50.9% of their twos (12th in the ACC) and 41% of their threes (dead last)., which suggests that they’re not defending too well.  The issues start on the perimeter where Robinson and Smith are both smallish and not fast, but extend to the inside, where Young — the big when Jamie Dixon turns to his beloved four-out lineups — does not offer the slightest semblance of rim protection. They survive thanks to a reasonable turnover rate (19.1%) fed by Robinson’s ball-hawking instincts (he plays a mean center field on the perimeter) and their ability to secure the rebound when an opponent actually misses (almost 70%).

Pitt’s lost four games. Young has essentially done his thing (17.8 points per game on 48% shooting in losses, a more efficient 16.8 on 59% in wins), while everyone else has struggled to both get and convert opportunities. Jamel Artis specifically has struggled. I threw together a sloppy Excel chart:

  Wins     Losses    
  Shots per % Points Per Shots per % Points Per
Michael Young 9.9 59.50% 16.9 13 48% 17.8
James Robinson 8.2 41% 10.2 8.75 31.4 8.5
Jamel Artis 11.2 53.90% 16.5 10 35% 11
Sheldon Jeter 5.4 55.80% 9.3 3.5 28.60% 3.5
Sterling Smith 5.5 40.40% 6.6 2.8 42.90% 2.5

Pitt’s better when their offense is flowing unencumbered and everyone is getting good looks, but their warts show when things bog down in the half court against teams with strong, physical perimeter guys like Clemson, Louisville, and Purdue that can take their guards out of the flow. When that happens, the guards can’t find cutting lanes, and possessions end with Young trying to create something.  I think that we can absolutely be the team to cut off a piece of their offense, and I really like matching Malcolm Brogdon up on Artis. Harassing Robinson will be the key: he’s much like London in how he sees the court and plays within the tempo of a game, and he’s great at winding his way into the lane and making the perfect pass. He hasn’t had a good game against us yet: in three career games, he’s 2-16 from the floor in three games for 10 points, six assists and two turnovers.

Verdict:
We have held consecutive opponents to 47 points, and those opponents have shot a combined 27.9% on twos (17-61). Malcolm is so hot that they’re not running the heat on the bus to Pittsburgh. I like that our EFG% and three point percentage in ACC games (54.7% and 39%) are almost equal to what Pitt has allowed (54.2% and 41.1%). I like the way this season is trending. I think the defense travels like it did in past years, and if it does, we will keep building momentum ahead of a big week that sees us reuniting with Tech and facing off with Duke.

 

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