Confronted with the losses of guards Terry Rozier (Boston Celtics) and Chris Jones (Turkey by way of dismissal) and forwards Montrezl Harrell (Houston Rockets) and Wayne Blackshear (Italy), Rick Pitino reloaded instead of rebuildings, piecing together a roster from graduate transfers and 2015 depth that has propelled the Cardinals into the national conversation.
Louisville is 17-3, with a 13-0 mark at home at the Yum! Center and only forgivable losses to Michigan State, Kentucky, and Clemson on the road marring their record. They haven’t played an arduous schedule — they faced only three teams currently ranked in Pomeroy’s top 100 before ACC play began and their conference foes have a combined record of 22-33 — but they’ve been beating the bejesus out of it as though every basket forgives an escort’s allegation against the program, outscoring their opponents by an average of 20.9 points per game.
The Cards have been winning with defense first. In ACC games, they’ve had the stingiest D (0.96 points per possession) in the conference, and their 0.91 mark for the season is sixth in the entire country. They have bigger, athletic guards and a fleet of mobile bigs that had some talking heads comparing them and their use to the Atkins/Mitchell/Gill/Tobey Virginia teams of the last two seasons.
As good as Louisville has been on D, there are some cracks in the foundation. Rick Pitino’s ideal team uses its matchup press to generate steals and deflections without fouling. If the opponent gets past that, they run a match up zone that will occasionally turn into a snarling, trapping man to man, with the idea being that all of this confusion will goad the opponent into bad shots and/or (preferably or) turnovers.
This is not Rick Pitino’s ideal team. In fairness to them, his defensive system takes time to pick up. Of the seven guys with the most minutes for Louisville this year, four are in their first season in the program and three are sophomores, only two of whom played much of a role in 2015. They don’t have the experience you need to be able to move intuitively from spot to spot in the press, and the split seconds of hesitation to think have occasionally caused them to be late to switch and caught out of position. That gumming of the works leads to fewer steals (Louisville led the AAC in steam percentage in 2014, finished third in the ACC in 2015, and is fifth in the ACC now), lots of fouls (their ACC opponents are taking a free throw for every two shot attempts, worst in the league) and too much reliance on their bigs to protect the rim. To the credit of the Cardinal bigs, they’re doing it — their 13.3 block rate in ACC play leads the league — but it feels more tenuous than Pitino wants. This is still a very good defense — see their 42% mark surrendered on twos, for example — but it’s not airtight, and most importantly, it’s not setting up Louisville’s offense with the transition chances they want.
Ah yes, the offense. Pitino teams traditionally creak and sputter in half court settings and this one is no different. Without a steady supply of lob dunks and *wide* open threes, Louisville is finding points a little harder to come by. They’re eighth in the ACC in offensive efficiency (1.08 ppp), but they’re dead last in assist rate (dimes on only 44.7% of makes) and turn it over on 18.8% of their possessions, the fourth-highest mark in the league. What’s worked has come primarily from guards Damion Lee and Trey Lewis and then from attacking the offensive glass with a relentless horde of bigs.
Lee — a grad transfer who scored 21.4 ppg at Drexel last year — is scoring 17.2 points per game and doing it both in the lane (he’s making 56% of his twos and getting to the line a lot) and from outside (37.7% on threes), while Cleveland State transfer Lewis scores in double figures (12.7) and is shooting almost 40% (39.4) from deep. The rebounds come from Chinanu Onuaku (ninth in the country at OREB% at 16.9%) and a platoon of 6’9” sophomore Jaylen Johnson (10.2%) and 6’10” freshman Ray Spalding (12.5%) next to him, a trio that has combined for 64 putbacks (or 6.4 second chance points per game) this season.
We’ve got to come out of the gate faster on offense to win this one. Danny Neckel from Streaking the Lawn pointed out that we’re taking vastly more threes than free throw attempts in the first half of road games. This is not a recipe for success for this inside-out team and definitely isn’t for this particular game, where the long rebounds from missed threes will fuel Louisville’s fast break just like a steal would. Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey both enjoyed two efficient games against the Cardinals last season, and I’d love to see them continue to attack — and be utilized early in doing so, which might mean that Jack Salt has to stop getting his strange and inexplicable token starts.
I’d also love to see us use Malcolm in the middle of the court almost like we do against the 2-3, and be the conduit to either get the ball to the block or to a shooter on the wing or in the corner. Finally, I want London Perrantes controlling this game, and that means shooting more than he did for the first 30 minutes in Winston-Salem. LP has made one shot in the first half of each of our four ACC road games, which doesn’t feel like enough.
We’ll need to be sound and take care of the ball against Louisville’s pressure, but I’m not as worried about that as I possibly should be. I’ve been spoiled by our success against VCU last season, West Virginia this season, and Syracuse the last three years, so I’m more worried about teams that play a stingy man-to-man than I am teams that play zone or press across half court. I trust London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon.
We also need to continue to dominate the defensive glass. We did a lot wrong against Syracuse, Clemson, and Wake, but they combined for just 17 offensive rebounds in those games. We grabbed at least 75% of defensive boards in all three.
Verdict:
This is a big game if you still think we have a shot at an ACC Tournament double bye (and why wouldn’t you? we’re a half-game back of #4 Miami and a game back of #3 Clemson and beat them both). To get there, we’re going to have to win some road games and shed this inexplicable offensive malaise that accompanies us outside of Charlottesville’s city limits. I think Louisville’s combination of size and speed up front will trouble us around the rim and make it even more tempting to fire from outside. Having seen this team at both its zenith and nadir, no outcome would surprise me tomorrow. My heart says that we put forth an inspired effort and set the tone for the rest of the season, but my head says our road struggles continue against the best team we’ve faced on the road yet this season. Left to break the tie, my gut says we come up just short.
