Game Preview: Duke vs Virginia - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Duke vs Virginia

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 11/20/2015 5:00:27 PM


Getting outmaneuvered by Duke in the early years of his regime was probably an early warning sign that things weren’t going as swimmingly with Mike London as we would have liked, but one that was easy to ignore when we were also losing or coming close to losing many other games that it felt like we weren’t supposed to.

Then as time passed, Duke kept recruiting their kind of guy and scheduling for bowl games, and good things started happening to them: winning records, bowl appearances (three straight and counting, which they’ve all lost, but whatever), an ACC Championship Game appearance (also a loss), an increase in national profile from nothing to something, and plans for a revamped and expanded Wallace Wade Stadium. They’re a lower tier national player at this point, and we’re long past the point where it’s an upset for them to beat us.

Duke’s an interesting team to study with ugly losses to UCLA, Oregon, and Boise State in our recent history. They’ve played the upward bound game right, scheduling for a winning record and profiting on and off the field from the added exposure gained by a postseason appearance and the experience picked up from three more weeks of practice. Looking at us, our aggressive scheduling has not seemed to forge us into anything resembling iron, and repeated blowout losses to high profile opponents have only served to lessen interest. The schedules were put together by an optimistic (it’s reasonable to think that a team would be competitive by year five or six of the coach’s tenure) but unrealistic (failing to consider just how bad the program was when CML took over) crew.

Duke’s won four of the last five in the series, has outscored us 104-47 in the second halves of those games (and 66-3 in the second halves of the last three) and has shredded our defense with either the run, the pass, or both every time out. The all-time series with Duke is tied at 33.

About Duke: 
Duke was feeling great as the presumptive class of the Coastal until The Return came along and seemed to ruin everything. Since then, they’ve lurched to a 66-31 shellacking at the hands of UNC and a dubious 31-13 pasting from Pitt and look as vulnerable as they’ve ever been in the four years since we last beat them.

Duke’s offense is read option all the way. Runs and passes alike start with a read option look, with quarterback Thomas Sirk leading the way. Sirk leads the Devils in rushing (555 yards and five TDs, 4.9 ypc) and is alright as a passer (58.7% complete, 220 yards per game, 6.3 ypa, 12 TDs and five picks). If you take out glorified scrimmages against Tulane and NC Central, Sirk’s numbers (56.4%, 168 yards per game, 5.5 ypa, 7/5)  come down to earth a little. He missed the Pitt game with a shoulder injury, and backup Parker Boehme was a slight facsimile (23-44, 280 yards, no TDs and one pick, 11 carries for 80 yards and a score) of the real deal. if Boehme starts tomorrow, he’ll be a threat to run, but less of a passing threat than Sirk would be.

There’s no Connor Vernon or Jamison Crowder on this year’s Duke team, but senior Max McCaffrey does a reasonable impression of his Dad (42 catches, 503 yards and three scores). Junior Johnell Barnes (34 for 411 and two) was one of three Devils dismissed this week, and Anthony Nash (16 catches for 309 yards) and freshman T.J. Rahming (21 for 269) will try to fill in. Running back Shaq Powell has 31 grabs and two scores of his own. Powell also leads Duke’s running backs in carries (104 for 473 yards and two TDs), with soph Shaun Wilson (68 carries, 4.6 per, two scores) and junior Jela Duncan (6.9 yards per carry) peppered in.

Duke’s converted 44.4% of their third downs this season, thanks in no small part to a big, burly offensive line. They’ve scored on 83% of their red zone trips (good), but like us, have managed touchdowns only 51.6% of the time (bad).

Duke’s defense was OK through Miami, but has fallen off precipitously since then. They surrendered 167 yards and five rushing touchdowns to UNC and then 268 more to Pitt. UNC hung 537 passing yards and five touchdowns on them through the air. They run the same 4-2-5 that all of the Cutcliffe teams have, supporting a ho-hum defensive line with consistent linebackers and talent at safety. Jeremy Cash is one of the best at that spot, Devon Edwards is right behind him, and linebacker Dwayne Norman has done a little bit of everything — he rushes the passer, covers backs and tight ends, and is tied with Cash for the team lead in tackles.

Ross Martin is a dead-eye kicker (19-22 FGs), Will Monday averages 44.3 yards per punt, and Edwards averages 29.6 yards per kickoff return and has taken two to the house. The punt return game is so-so (6.9 per), but their coverage (3.1) is better. The kickoff coverage team (21 yards per, two scores allowed — even if one didn’t count) is the weak link.

How to Beat Duke: 

1.) Make Sirk (or Broehme — especially Broehme) be a passer first. Duke has split their offensive plays almost evenly between runs and passes this year, but I’d prefer to make Duke’s quarterbacks throw if I had to choose. Sirk has struggled some and has a bum shoulder, Broehme is inexperienced and isn’t Josh Rosen, and Duke is figuring some things out at receiver. On top of that, we’ve struggled some containing running quarterbacks this year, so I’d overcommit.

2.) Pick on Duke’s outsides. Duke’s 4-2-5 is strong up the middle against the run, and the middle of the field is the lair of both Cash and Dwayne Norman. Their corners run between 5’10” and 6’0,” so I implore Steve Fairchild to stay away from the screen (which will just get blown up by any one of Duke’s safeties) and go to Canaan, Keeon, and Big Butts.

3.) Win the red zone battle of ineptitude. Both of these teams will have opportunities to score touchdowns from inside the opposing 20 tomorrow. Chances are, the one that gets six more often will win. I’m an analyst! We scored two touchdowns in three RZ trips at Louisville after getting two in six in the previous two weeks combined, so maybe we’re onto something (don’t remind me about the end of the third quarter in Louisville).

4.) Tackle in space. Duke loves to hit Shaq Powell and Shaun Wilson in the flats or on little circle routes over the middle, which then allows them to try to break free and pick up yards after the grab. It’s related to how Georgia Tech challenges you to stay disciplined, and is probably a bad matchup for a heavy diet of blitzes.

5.) Don’t get pantsed. David Cutcliffe is a much better coach than Mike London. I’m nervous he’s going to do something like fake an extra point or try a double reverse onside kick and gain an edge.

What to Watch For: 

1.) Who plays linebacker? You? Me? Keith Jenifer? We’re down Zach Bradshaw, Eric Gallon, and Mark Hall this week, and CML has been quoted as saying we’ll “get creative.” I think that means that Kelvin Rainey moves back to linebacker (where he looked solid against Georgia Tech), Wil Wahee starts at his safety spot, and Darious Latimore at nickel. It could be as simple an answer as C.J. Stalker.

2.) Do we surpass 30,000 fans? I think we do. I don’t think that we sink under 30,000 until London is retained and the team is 0-2 or 1-3 next season. I don’t think we break 40, though.

3.) Contrasting motivation. Duke’s playing for postseason positioning. We’re playing for the somewhat dubious goal of .500 in the ACC. Will pride alone (and maybe our coach’s flickering job security) be enough to fire these kids up?

4.) Breon Borders vs. Canaan Severin. Borders is Duke’s best corner. Severin is coming off the second-best game of his UVa career. Only one will emerge victorious (unless the other one’s team wins anyway).

Verdict:
I feel strangely good about this game. Duke has QB questions and a running game that we match up well with. We have an offense whose strengths fit well with their weaknesses. I think this is a high scoring game that we pull out late, giving the fan base one last fun day at Scott in 2015. Virginia 38, Duke 35

 

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