Game Preview: Duke vs Penn State - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Duke vs Penn State

by DukeBlogger.com

Posted: 11/18/2016 8:10:34 PM


The Basketball Hall of Fame hosts the annual Tip-Off Tournament each November.

The Tip-Off Tournament is an NCAA exempt men’s basketball tournament sponsored by the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC). Each year, top teams and conferences will compete in the Basketball Hall of Fame’s event showcasing its talents in New England’s only exempt Division I college basketball tournament. The original Tip-Off was held in Springfield for more than 25 years. The format has changed, but the name has remained the same.

Duke

Top-ranked Duke will look to rebound from its first loss of the season on Saturday when it faces Penn State in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-Off. The Blue Devils are 247-74 (.769) in neutral settings under head coach Mike Krzyzewski. Coach K has led Duke to an 88-16 (.846) record and 18 titles in in-season tournaments. The Blue Devils have won the third-most games (212) and have the fourth-best winning percentage (.815) in the nation this decade. Duke’s perimeter defense has held opponents to just a .148 mark from three-point range this season. Opponents are averaging only 2.7 three pointers per game on the year. Duke has forced at least 14 turnovers in each of its first three games, turning them into an average of 15.7 points per game.

Offensively, the Blue Devils lead the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency with a mark of 121.5 points per 100 possessions. Duke’s attacking style has led to an average possession length of 13.6 seconds. Grayson Allen will head into the Penn State game needing 15 points to become the 65th member of Duke’s 1,000-point club. Saturday will mark his 75th career game. Frank Jackson has burst onto the scene with three double-figure scoring games to open his career. He is shooting .538 (7-of-13) from outside the arc. Matt Jones played all 40 minutes against Kansas Tuesday and leads Duke with an average of 34.7 minutes per game. He has started 51 straight games in which he has played.


Notables:

  • Duke’s perimeter defense has been stifling in the early going of 2016-17, holding teams to a .148 mark from three-point range that ranks eighth nationally and third among major-conference teams.
  • None of Duke’s three opponents has made more than three three-pointers in a game this season.
  • Duke has outscored teams 57 points (81-24), an average of 19.0 points per game, from three-point territory through three games.
  • Duke has held a lead at the half in each of its games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 16.0 points (134-86) in the opening period.
  • The Blue Devils have yet to allow a team to reach the 30-point mark in a first half this season.

Probable Starters

Guard – Sophomore Grayson Allen

Guard – Junior Matt Jones

Guard –Sophomore Luke Kennard

Forward – Sophomore Chase Jeter

Forward – Grad Student Amile Jefferson

 

Penn State

The Nittany Lions will take on No. 1 Duke in the first semifinal of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament at 12:30 PM ET Saturday at Mohegan Sun. The game will be shown on ESPN3. It is the first meeting vs. the top-ranked team in the country since 2011. Penn State is 0-13 all-time against the No. 1 team. Penn State has won each of its last two games after starting the season with loss vs. Albany. Last time out, the Lions defeated Grand Canyon 85-76 as part of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off on-campus contests. The Lions will play six games within the first two weeks of the season and a program-record tying eight in the month of November. They had three within the first five days of the season.

Five players are averaging in double figures after three games, led by freshmen Lamar Stevens (17.7 PPG). Three freshmen – Tony Carr, Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins – were among the starters on opening night, marking the first time in program history three rookies were on the floor to start the season opener and the first time since the final three games of the 2007-08 season that at least three starters were freshmen in any game.

Notables:

  • Penn State Against the ACC
    • Penn State is 147-187 against ACC opponents all-time, most frequently facing Pittsburgh (76-69) and Syracuse (43-62). Duke is the first of three ACC teams on the 2016-17 schedule for the Nittany Lions. They will host Georgia Tech Nov. 29 in the B1G/ACC Challenge and take on Pittsburgh Dec. 10 in the inaugural Never Forget Tribute Classic at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. The latter is part of a doubleheader with Villanova and Notre Dame.
  • Penn State Against No. 1 Teams
    • Penn State enters Saturday with an 0-13 record all-time against opponents ranked No. 1 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. PSU last faced a No. 1 team on March 13, 2011, when Penn State fell, 71-60, to top-ranked Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament.

Probable Starters

Guard – Junior Shep Garner

Forward – Junior Payton Banks

Forward – Freshman Lamar Stevens

Forward – RS Freshman Mike Watkins

Guard – Freshman Tony Carr

For Duke in this game it’s not really going to be about what Penn State does but about what Duke does. Coming off of the loss to Kansas there were glaring issues that may not even be able to be resolved against Penn State. Duke needs to improve both its back-court and front-court play. Without a tried and true point guard on this team, Duke has struggled with offensive fluidity.

Duke will need to establish a low post presence to free up some seams for shooters. Duke will also need execute better but offensively was only part of the issue; Duke gave up entirely too many points in the paint. Kansas scored at will by driving directly into the teeth of the Duke defense.

Clearly, there are pieces missing from this team but if they are to gain traction in the interim, it has to start with defense.

Coming off an emotional defeat, this Duke team has learned some things about itself in the first week of the season and fans ought to be happy with what they’ve seen thus far. In Uncasville, look for Luke Kennard to stay hot, Grayson Allen to get back to being, well, Grayson Allen and I believe the opportunity will present itself for Coach K to look further down that bench. This Penn State squad is outmatched and outmanned in every aspect, however they need to be wary.

I often like to look at how bookies predict game outcomes. Therefore, there is little doubt that Duke is going to win this game so the question is whether or not they will cover the big number. The key will be Duke having a great first half because the bench for Duke right now is simply not very deep, partly due to underutilization in my opinion. I think the Blue Devils will bounce back with a big effort so I will lay the points and hope to avoid a backdoor cover by Penn State. That said, I still feel that Duke should win easily, 81-60.

 

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