A fluke? A fluke?! You’ve got to be kidding me. I’ve heard many refer to Virginia’s 2013-2014 season using these exact words, or others very similar. And while they are ranked around #10 on average in top 25 polls right now and have even been picked to win it all by a couple of media members, I never seem to hear about Virginia when talking to fans about ACC title contenders. But Virginia is no blip in the radar, and ACC fans better start taking them seriously this season and onward as a team that will consistently battle for the league title.
The son of famous Wisconsin coach Dick Bennett and the brother of current Northern Illinois women's coach Kathi Bennett, Tony Bennett has coaching blood running through his veins. And in the current landscape of college basketball, in which you can make an argument that many teams are renting out players for a season, Bennett has decided to build Virginia the old fashioned way, with program players and defense. And he’s succeeded immensely after taking over a team from Dave Leito that won 10 games the previous season. In Bennett’s five years at Virginia, they have increased the win total from 15 to 16 to 22 to 23 to 30. The 30 win season last year, besides giving the program their first NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 appearance since 1995, also involved winning the ACC regular season and tournament championships. Yet with them seemingly coming out of nowhere to many, combined with losing rebounding machine Akil Mitchell and outside threat and leader Joe Harris, they have been an easy choice for the number four team in the ACC behind Duke, North Carolina and Louisville.
Virginia will have a ton of experience in the starting lineup, with four Juniors and one Sophomore. Malcolm Brogdon is widely considered their best player, but lacks the flash to his game that appeals to a national audience despite averaging almost 16 points per game in the ACC last year. When talking about the best proven guards in the conference, I would probably name him along with Olivier Hanlan as the only players deserving of being spoken of in the same breath as Marcus Paige. While Virginia forges their identity on offense this season, the ball will most likely flow through Brogdon, though London Perrantes will bring it up as the point guard and most consistent three point threat. Power forward Anthony Gill attacks the glass for rebounds very well, and center Mike Tobey, while sometimes shying away from contact a bit too much for my liking, has tremendous athleticism and potential if he plays as big as his body. If not, Darion Atkins can fill in as a physical presence.
Bennett also recruited some high potential Freshmen like B.J. Stith, (son of legendary Cav Bryant Stith) Jack Salt, a New Zealand center who brings rare physicality, aggressive slasher Mariel Shayok, and defensive menace Devon Hall. They’ll grow throughout the year, finding their roles along the way.
The x-factor in my opinion will be small forward Justin Anderson. He is an absolute freak of an athlete, and as a Duke fan I remember watching then-Oak Hill Senior Quinn Cook play against Anderson and Montrose Christian in High School. Despite my best efforts to keep my eyes on Cook, Anderson was the one who kept standing out to me. Even as a then-Junior in High School, his body was extremely mature. Basically, he was RIPPED. And he’s only gotten stronger since then, with an aggressive game to match. I’m already looking forward to the matchup of Duke’s Justise Winslow against Anderson when the two teams match up January 31. (As a fellow lefty, I also appreciate both being southpaws). While starting out as a defensive lock-down and rebounding specialist, Anderson’s added much more to his offensive game than just the occasional slashing presence he provided in his first two seasons. He’s even shooting 59% from three in four games played, which is 30% higher than his career average. While I don’t expect that rate to continue, I will say that if can give them any sort of presence from the outside, it makes his attacking, athletic style even more lethal. One last thing about Anderson: While watching the Oak Hill-Montrose Christian game, the announcers kept saying that Anderson’s dream was to attend Duke, and they didn’t offer him….sigh.
Virginia’s success will still be determined by their always stifling defense, but many forget how impressive their offense was last season, achieving the No. 21 ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency stats. Virginia has the experience and the talent to match up with any team despite their lack of high profile names.
Running through the top tier teams in the ACC, Duke and North Carolina are both talented but lack experience. North Carolina’s outside shooting could be an added issue throughout the season. Louisville, despite missing Russ Smith, has key veterans coming back, a harassing defense, and a beast in Montrezl Harrell. Right now, I’ll give the teams with more proven (experienced) players the benefit of the doubt over young, exciting guys with potential. As for other teams in the conference, I’d love for a team I’m not currently discussing (Miami or NC State?) to jump into the fray and give the top four competition. Usually Syracuse would make it five, but they will probably be rebuilding this year. I’m keeping my eye on Buzz Williams at Virginia Tech as well. That is a man who puts everything he has into coaching, giving his program a bright future.
As for my top-tier rankings in the ACC, I’m positive that much will change throughout the season, and this is less a prediction and more of a current ranking. So at this point in mid-November, I’m giving Virginia their due credit and placing my top four teams in the ACC in this order:
1. Virginia
2. Louisville
3. Duke
4. UNC
