We know you have been waiting for the ACC Bubble Analysis we do each year. Here is the first one. Who’s in and who’s out?
This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams and where I think they’d should be placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.
Locks
(23) Duke (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (5) Florida, (57) Rhode Island, (79) Michigan State
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Duke will be scary good, when they are fully healthy. Tennessee State is their only game this week on the 19th.
(9) North Carolina (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 2
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (42) Oklahoma State, (43) Davidson, (48) Wisconsin, (65) Chattanooga
Bad Losses – None
Notes – If UNC beats Kentucky on the 17th, I’ll move them up to the one line.
(16) Virginia (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3
Last 10 – (8-1)
Good Wins – * (26) Providence, (82) Yale, (85) Ohio State
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Virginia plays Robert Morris this week on the 17th. Tony Bennett has another ACC contender at Virginia.
(8) Louisville (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 3
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (34) Purdue, (64) Witchita State, (73) Texas Southern
Bad Losses – None
Notes – If Louisville had beat Baylor a couple of weeks ago they’d be a top 2 seed. They have only Eastern Kentucky this week.
(24) Florida State (10-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (5) Florida, * (13) Minnesota, (52) Winthrop, (77) Illinois, (78) Nicholls State, (93) Iona
Bad Losses – None
Notes – RPI wins will change, but the Florida and Minnesota wins will look good all year for FSU. Manhattan and Samford are up next this week for the Noles.
(39) Notre Dame (9-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (27) Northwestern, (71) IPFW, (98) Loyola-Maryland
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Notre Dame has Purdue and Colgate this week. The Irish yet again look like a NCAA Team.
(54) Virginia Tech (8-1) (0-0) Projected Seed 7
Last 10 – (8-1)
Good Wins – * (30) Ole Miss, (56) Michigan, (58) Nebraska
Bad Losses – None
Notes – I think Buzz Williams has a team that can make the NCAAs. The Citadel and Charleston Southern are this week.
Bubble But In
(45) Pittsburgh (8-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – * (32) Maryland, (85) Yale, (97) Marquette
Bad Losses – * (198) Duquesne
Notes – I like the Maryland win, but if Pitt is one the bubble that Duquesne loss could be an anchor. Rice is on the schedule this week.
(92) Miami (7-2) (0-0) Projected Seed 9
Last 10 – (7-2)
Good Wins – * (49) Stanford, (78) Rutgers, (95) Penn
Bad Losses – (100) Iowa State
Notes – FAU is this week for Miami. Don’t worry about Miami’s RPI right now. As more games are played the RPI’s get sorted out.
Bubble But Out
(12) Wake Forest (8-2) (0-0)
Last 10 – (8-2)
Good Wins – (51) College of Charleston, (72) Bucknell
Bad Losses – None
Notes – How big would it be if Danny Manning’s bunch could get a road win at Xavier on December 17th?
(36) NC State (7-2) (0-0)
Last 10 – (7-2)
Good Wins – (60) Tennessee State, (61) St. Joseph
Bad Losses – None
Notes – NC State needs more high profile wins to get into the field. Appalachian State and Fairfield are this week.
(68) Clemson (6-2) (0-0)
Last 10 – (6-2)
Good Wins – * (40) Davidson, (59) Nebraska, (66) Georgia
Bad Losses – (130) Oklahoma
Notes – SC State is this week. Clemson also plays at Alabama on the 18th. I’d like to see Clemson get that non-conference win.
(163) Syracuse (6-3) (0-0)
Last 10 – (6-3)
Good Wins – (67) Monmouth
Bad Losses – (158) UCONN
Notes – Syracuse hasn’t done enough in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Georgetown and Eastern Michigan are this week, and the Cuse can’t afford to lose either.
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(124) Georgia Tech (5-3) (0-0)
Last 10 – (5-3)
Good Wins – * (49) VCU, (81) Sam Houston State
Bad Losses – (106) Penn State, (134) Tennessee
Notes – Georgia Tech won’t make the NCAAs, but the win at VCU last week opened some eyes. Alcorn State and Georgia are this week. If Georgia Tech wins both, then if you are a Jacket fan you have to be fairly pleased with the early returns on Josh Pastner.
(290) Boston College (5-5) (0-0)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (54) Auburn
Bad Losses – (112) Kansas State, * (179) Richmond, * (194) Hartford, * (311) Harford
Notes – The ACC is not the place for a struggling program like BC to get better, but they did beat Auburn this past week. BC playes Sacred Heart in the upcoming week.
