What it really takes to make the CFB Playoffs - Part 1 - SCACCHoops.com

What it really takes to make the CFB Playoffs - Part 1

by All Sports Discussion

Posted: 5/14/2015 5:59:48 AM


The off-season has been filled with so many permutations for what it takes to make the college football playoffs, it’s become exhausting, confusing, and downright over complicated. Throw it all out, because there are two sure ways to make the playoff – blow teams away, and simply don’t lose. This will be a 2 part series, starting with how much scoring margin matters.

Let’s look at Ohio State results last year… The Buckeyes had 9 victories by 14 or more points prior to the playoffs.

August 30   vs. Navy*   W 34–17  
September 6   Virginia Tech*   L 21–35  
September 13   Kent State*   W 66–0  
September 27   Cincinnati*   W 50–28  
October 4   at Maryland   W 52–24  
October 18   Rutgers   W 56–17  
October 25   at Penn State   W 31–24 2OT
 
November 1   Illinois   W 55–14  
November 8   at #7 Michigan State   W 49–37  
November 15   at Minnesota   W 31–24  
November 22   Indiana   W 42–27  
November 29   Michigan   W 42–28  
December 6   vs. #11 Wisconsin   W 59–0  

Florida State in contrast had 5 victories by 14 or more points.

August 30   vs. Oklahoma State*   W 37–31  
September 6   The Citadel   W 37–12  
September 20   #22 Clemson   W 23–17 OT
 
September 27   at NC State   W 56–41  
October 4   Wake Forest   W 43–3  
October 11   at Syracuse   W 38–20  
October 18   #5 Notre Dame*   W 31–27  
October 30   at Louisville   W 42–31  
November 8   Virginia   W 34–20  
November 15   at Miami (FL)   W 30–26  
November 22   Boston College   W 20–17  
November 29   Florida*   W 24–19  
December 6   vs. #12 Georgia Tech   W 37–35  

There are quite a few people that have said Florida State would have missed the CFP had they lost a game… Possibly, but lets analyze if they had won by the same margins as Ohio State.

We are going to try match to results as close as possible to who and when Ohio State played.

August 30   vs. Oklahoma State*   L 21-35  
September 6   The Citadel   W 66-0  
September 20   #22 Clemson   W 31–24 2OT  
September 27   at NC State   W 52–24  
October 4   Wake Forest   W 55-14  
October 11   at Syracuse   W 56-17  
October 18   #5 Notre Dame*   W 49-37  
October 30   at Louisville   W 31-24  
November 8   Virginia   W 34–17  
November 15   at Miami (FL)   W 50-28  
November 22   Boston College   W 42-27  
November 29   Florida*   W 42-28  
December 6   vs. #12 Georgia Tech   W 59-0

So Florida State ends the season with  5 straight double digit wins, including a 59-0 win over a 10 win Georgia Tech team fresh off beating a top 10 Georgia squad on the road? Is Florida State in as good a position to make the playoffs as Ohio State was? I don’t see why not. An early season loss to Oklahoma State wouldn’t be any worse than the Buckeyes loss to Virginia Tech.

I’m not seeing a lot of difference in resume, once the scores are swapped.

The CFP dirty little secret is scoring margin is a huge factor, but the committee calls it “game control”

In part 2, we’ll get into if you go undefeated you’re going to playoffs from a Power 5 conference. There’s virtually no historical basis for an undefeated Power 5 team to finished outside the top 4. So… win and stop complaining about being left out of the playoff.

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