Lies and statistics about tonight's Duke-UNC game - SCACCHoops.com
>> Next Article How The ACC Squandered This Year's 18-Game Schedule
<< Previous Article Previewing UNC at #2 Duke

Lies and statistics about tonight's Duke-UNC game

   Posted by Duke Hoop at  2/13/2013 4:33:09 PM  |  Follow us on Twitter: @scacchoops
Discuss     Bookmark and Share

This is nowhere near the most anticipated Duke-UNC matchup in history, or even recent history, as the Blue Devils are ranked second in the country and coming off a six fame winning streak while UNC is unranked and struggling to find its footing. The old saying goes in this rivalry that you can throw the records out when these two matchup. While that might be true, let’s at least take at look at some stats that might tell us how these teams got here and where an upset might be born or another curb-stomping could take place.

I got my stats from the Team Comparison over at Statsheet.com, a great resource if you’re looking to see how two teams matchup with each other.

RECORDS

Duke-UNC 2_13 Record Stats

It’s no secret that Duke has been tough to beat this season, even though most of their wins came early in the season when Ryan Kelly was healthy. With Kelly out, Duke stumbled once against NC State in their first game attempting to adjust without him and another time against the Miami Hurricanes. That Miami loss doesn’t look so bad now, as the Hurricanes are ranked #3 in the country and are receiving numerous first place votes. At home, Duke has no blemishes on their record and their margin of victory this season against unranked teams at home is 23.5 points. If this weren’t a rivalry game, I’d expect that margin to hold true. That said, it’ll likely be a lot closer than that.

UNC has only one good win on their resume so far this season, so tonight’s game has added meaning for a team currently projected as a double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels, that win over then #20 UNLV came in the friendly and soothing confines of the Dean E. Smith Center where they have put up an impressive 11-1 record. UNC is under .500 on the road this year, which includes forgivable losses to Indiana and Miami but also a really bad loss to a Texas team that hasn’t done much outside of winning that game. In games against comparable competition to tonight’s foe Duke, the Tar Heels have yet to put up a W. If UNC is able to pull off the upset, it will truly be a case of rivalry games superseding the team’s records.

 

Duke-UNC 2_13 Offensive StatsOFFENSE

Duke is often thought of as a slow, plodding offense by many who don’t pay attention to the game. Truthfully, the offensive style Duke employs changes based on the talent at hand and this team is built to run. Quinn Cook is comfortable pushing the tempo, finding post players down low for easy layups often on the break. More dangerously, Duke’s shooters get into position very well in transition and Cook has shown the ability to find guys for wide open three-pointers if the defense doesn’t get set. The Blue Devils’ 1.13 points per possession ranks 9th in the country and when they are hitting from outside it’s hard to stop them.

UNC has been known as a stellar offensive squad under Coach Roy Willliams, mostly due to the uptempo pace they play. When they have a point guard who is able to keep up that pace of play and distribute the ball, it’s one of the more fun offenses to watch in the country. This year is no exception, as the Tar Heels’ 73.8 possessions per game ranks 6th in the country. UNC wants to run at every opportunity, and putting up 1.06 points per possession allows them to punish inferior talent. That won’t be the case tonight, and the Tar Heels’ execution in the halfcourt will determine whether or not they can pull off the upset.

 

 

DEFENSE

Duke-UNC 2_13 Defensive StatsWhile UNC is not known as a great defensive team, they have been quite effective this season except for a few games. Their .94 points per possession defense comes in right behind Duke but due to the fact that they squeeze more possessions into a game, they’re giving up five more points per contest. A lot of the numbers for these two teams are very similar, which was surprising to me before I compared the two teams. If you’re a UNC fan, the 12.8 assists per game given up and 31.8 3PT% should be concerning. These are both areas where Duke excels and if those stats keep up that could spell disaster.

Duke will have to do a good job of not giving UNC easy 2-pointers, as that is their biggest area of weakness. Most of this will come to getting back in transition well and if the Blue Devils are making their shots it will be tough for the Tar Heels to run. I’m assuming that Coach K would rather give up some rebounds on the offensive end (an area where Duke has struggled all year) so that they can get back on defense.

 

 

 

This article was originally published at http://DukeHoopBlog.com. If you are interested in sharing your website's content with SCACCHoops.com, Contact Us.

 

Post a Comment About this Article
Entry Link     0 Comment(s)
Subscribe  
>> Next Article How The ACC Squandered This Year's 18-Game Schedule
<< Previous Article Previewing UNC at #2 Duke

Comments on Lies and statistics about tonight's Duke-UNC game

There are currently no posts for this NewsBreaker


Post a Comment

Posting As:   Remember Me?
Subject:
Message:

Before submitting this form, please type the color of the first character:


Search
Search
Advertisement
 
Poll
Who is the 2nd best ACC football team behind FSU?
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Duke
Miami
Louisville
Someone Else


Newsbreakers
UNC 78 UCLA 56
11/27/2014 10:07:15 PM
Notre Dame Puts Away Grambling, 81-54
11/27/2014 8:18:28 AM
Pitt takes 3rd in Maui Invitational with 70-47 win over Wildcats
11/26/2014 10:32:18 PM
Louisville looks sloppy, but Pitino picks up 700th win
11/26/2014 10:30:37 PM
Butler 74 UNC 66
11/26/2014 10:29:00 PM
Will's Week Fourteen Predictions
11/26/2014 10:10:52 AM
Virginia at Virginia Tech: Game Preview
11/26/2014 9:56:01 AM
Game Sim's college football week 14 predictions
11/26/2014 8:42:49 AM
ACC Morning Linkfest 11/26/2014
11/26/2014 8:17:26 AM
Pitt routed by San Diego State, 74-57
11/26/2014 8:00:31 AM
Can Marquise Williams Win ACC Player of the Year?
11/25/2014 10:00:39 PM
Syracuse 70 Loyola 37: Orange Improve To 4-1
11/25/2014 9:08:34 PM
Virginia blows by Tennessee State 79-36
11/25/2014 8:43:40 PM
Okafor, Harrell, and Terry Rozier projected as top 10 picks
11/25/2014 4:37:12 PM
ACC Morning Linkfest 11/25/2014
11/25/2014 7:06:48 AM
Message Board
 
YBN Widget
RSS Feed  
SCACC Hoops has no affiliation to the NCAA or the ACC
Team logos are trademarks of their respective organizations (more/credits)