Duke has had a #1 seed in the tournament firmly in it’s sight for the majority of the season, even after the Florida State debacle. However, with UNC and Notre Dame both surging towards the end of the year and Duke suffering road setbacks in 2 of it’s last 3 games, Duke’s perch atop a bracket in the NCAA Tourney has disappeared or is wobbling depending on who you ask. For brevity’s sake, we’ll assume that KU and OSU have two of the #1 seeds locked up. Let’s take a look at the resumes of the remaining contenders to see who’s likely to get the last two #1 seeds.
Before we start, let’s all congratulate Pitt for wetting the bed today in their first game of the Big East tournament. Granted, it was against UCONN, but they’ve now lost 3 of their last 6 games. Also, I’m only using the RPI because the Selection Committee does. It’s antiquated, like them, but I’m playing the cards we’re dealt. Also, for the purposes of this list, I’m cutting off quality wins at #39 RPI, which is probably too low. Don’t hate.
Duke (27-4) RPI #5
vs Top 25 RPI (2-2)
vs Top 50 RPI (8-3)
vs Top 75 RPI (12-4)
SOS: 30
Quality Wins: #18 KSU, #36 Butler, #28 UAB, #6 UNC, #29 Temple
Losses: #64 Va Tech, #6 UNC, #23 St. John’s, #45 FSU
Will likely clinch a #1 seed with an ACC Tourney win.
Notre Dame (25-5) RPI #9
vs Top 25 RPI (7-4)
vs Top 50 RPI (10-4)
vs Top 75 RPI (13-5)
SOS: 26
Quality Wins: #13 Wisconsin, #12 Georgetown, #24 UCONN (X2), #23 St. John’s, #32 Cincinnati, #21 Louisville, #37 Nova
Losses: #11 UK, #17 Cuse, #58 Marquette, #23 St. John’s, #19 West Va
Have the best resume of any remaining contender. Likely in with a win over Cincinnati.
UNC (24-6) RPI #6
vs Top 25 RPI (2-2)
vs Top 50 RPI (6-4)
vs Top 75 RPI (11-5)
SOS: 9
Quality Wins: #11 UK, #5 Duke
Losses: #75 Minnesota, #27 Vanderbilt, #40 Illinois, #14 Texas, #163 Georgia Tech, #5 Duke
Likely clinch with an ACC Tourney win.
Purdue (25-6) RPI #8
vs Top 25 RPI (2-3)
vs Top 50 RPI (7-3)
vs Top 75 RPI (13-4)
SOS: 19
Quality Wins: #13 Wisconsin, #2 Ohio State
Losses: #59 Richmond, #75 Minnesota, #19 West Va, #2 Ohio State, #13 Wisconsin, #172 Iowa
That loss to Iowa probably knocked them out of contention, but they could get quality wins by winning the Big 10 Tourney. Need to do so to have a shot.
Pittsburgh (27-5) RPI #7
vs Top 25 RPI (6-4)
vs Top 50 RPI (9-5)
vs Top 75 RPI (10-5)
SOS: 27
Quality Wins: #14 Texas, #24 UCONN, #12 Georgetown, #17 Syracuse, #32 Cincinnati, #19 West Va (X2), #37 NOVA (X2)
Losses: #35 Tennessee, #9 Notre Dame, #23 St. John’s, #21 Louisville, #24 UCONN
Honestly, probably a better resume than any other contender than Notre Dame, but losing in it’s first game in the Big East Tournament likely didn’t help their cause. Would need someone other than Duke/UNC to win ACCT to help their cause.
I’m calling it for Notre Dame. They have too many good wins and their losses are to good teams (except the Marquette one, which isn’t worse than any of the others except for Pitt’s.)
Both Duke and UNC need to win the tourney to get the #1 spot. One of them will. I think that would be enough for either team to get the nod over Pitt. The loser will more than likely end up a #2 seed as long as they make the final. That loss to Iowa just knocked Purdue out of contention in my opinion.
