North Carolina basketball and the success of one-and-done players: Part 1 - SCACCHoops.com

North Carolina basketball and the success of one-and-done players: Part 1

by Jake Lawrence

Posted: 5/9/2017 10:00:57 AM


After being shunned by Kevin Knox, Tar Heel Blog takes an in-depth look at one-year players in the NCAA.

Okay. It’s been a few days. Fans have all had time to sit back and digest the news that Kevin Knox will be living in Lexington, Kentucky, next season. Reactions range from complete irrational hate towards a 17-year-old kid to complete apathy. For Tar Heel fans, most emotions are probably bouncing between frustration at missing out on another highly ranked recruit and a relief that Knox didn’t choose Duke.

Many had hoped that back-to-back Final Fours and Roy’s third NCAA title may have helped turn the tide. For a variety of reasons that are best discussed at a different time, UNC hasn’t quite turned that recent success into bringing in that top, "elite" talent. Not that it matters. North Carolina continues to thrive. In fact, numerous teams that don’t recruit OADs (or at a minimum, don’t chase OADs as their primary recruiting strategy) have continued to find success, especially in the post-season.

How much success? Grab a cup of coffee. We’re going down some rabbit holes as we take a look at how teams that have signed OADs have fared over the past 12 years.

This is the first in a three part series. Today I’ll present mostly data about teams who have signed one-and-done players and how some of those teams have performed through the early rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

Later this week I’ll follow this up with a look at success rates of those teams in the Elite Eight, Final Four, and Championship games. I’ll finish the series by analyzing what the information means for basketball and for UNC.

Before we begin, let’s go over some ground rules and come to some basic understandings.

1) I have no major bias for or against recruiting methods. I want to know what works best.

2) This data includes the 2017 early entrants list. If a freshman has signed with an agent, they are now officially a "OAD".

3) If they have not signed an agent, I am making the assumption they will return to school.

4) Some of this data may change after the 2017 combine. I will update after the combine if necessary.

5) This data begins with the 2005-2006 season, when the "One-and-Done" rule was introduced.

6) This means that I am not "forgetting" about Marvin Williams and Carmelo Anthony.

7) I use quite a few tables. I have many more that I did not show here that influenced this process. I can share those upon request.

Who is signing OADs?

It often seems schools like Kentucky and Duke dominate the OAD landscape. OADs are usually top 15 recruits, and every spring, summer, and fall media and fans fawn over the best recruiting classes. Even ardent basketball fans probably think that Kentucky and Duke are the only two schools that regularly recruit OAD talent, and have made them a focal point of their program’s recruiting strategy.

That would be a misleading thought. Since the 2005-2006 season, 117 Division-1 players have left college after only one season. It would be hard for only two or three schools to scoop up all 117. Instead, I was surprised to see that 37 different D-1 schools have signed at least one OAD. Of those 37 schools, 19 have signed multiple OADs. Seventeen schools have signed at least one OAD in multiple seasons.

Here’s the break down. This includes the school, the total number of OADs signed, and the number of seasons that a school has had an OAD on its roster:

 

School

Total OADs

# of seasons

School

Total

# of Seasons

Kentucky

21

8 (10-17)

California

1

1

Kansas

9

7 (10-11, 13-17)

Cincinnati

1

1

Duke

9

6 (11-12,'14-17)

Creighton

1

1

UCLA

8

6 (08-09, 13-15, 17)

Florida

1

1

Ohio State

6

4 (07-09, 15)

Gonzaga

1

1

Texas

6

5 (07, 10-11, 15, 17)

Illinois

1

1

Arizona

6

4 (08, 13-15, 17)

Marquette

1

1

Washington

5

4 (07, 12, 16, 17)

Marshall

1

1

UNLV

4

3 (13, 15-16)

Maryland

1

1

Syracuse

4

4 (08, 14-16)

Michigan State

1

1

Georgia Tech

3

2 (07, 10)

Midland CC

1

1

LSU

3

3 (06, 08, 16)

North Carolina

1

1

Memphis

3

3 (06, 08-09)

Pittsburgh

1

1

Indiana

2

2 (08, 14)

Providence

1

1

N.C. State

2

2 (08, 17)

Categories: Basketball, Duke, Recruiting, UNC

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