Game Preview: Virginia vs George Washington - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Virginia vs George Washington

by UniversityBall.org

Posted: 11/16/2015 12:27:03 PM


I’m sure you already know, but George Washington is quite the formidable opponent.

Basketball GW is, too. The Colonials are big (6’10,” 6’9”) and experienced up front and athletic on the wings. They play in a bandbox, but it’s the kind of small arena where the fans will be close enough to braid AG’s hair during timeouts, and I expect it to be full and at least mostly hostile (I heard of a lot of UVa fans buying GW season tickets just for this game) tonight. Ken Pomeroy, whose word I consider as close to gospel as anyone’s, thinks this is our third most difficult out of conference game behind our trip to Columbus and visit from Villanova. I’m hyped. I know we’re good, so I’d rather see what we can do against legit competition on the road than worry that we’re not beating Morgan State by enough.

We played GW in Charlottesville last year, a game that the Colonials actually led 26-22 at the half before Justin and Malcolm woke up to carry the scoring load and the defense tightened up around Colonial guard Kethan Savage. We won the second half 37-16 and the game 59-42.  Savage was a guard who wanted to get to the rim first and foremost either for himself or to create and was the go-to guy on last year’s team; with his departure, they’re focusing more on getting their points from their bigs.

Shawnta Rogers is not taking the floor tonight: George Washington’s starting lineup is ready to body up against a team on the Mike Curtis plan. The bulk starts with 6’10,” 265 pound senior Kevin Larsen (24 points and 11 boards in the opener), continues to 6’9” Wake transfer Tyler Cavanaugh (15 and 17), extends to the wing in 6’6” Patricio Garino (who started for Argentina this past summer), and continues on to the backcourt with a pair of short-but-sturdy guards. G-Dub grabbed almost half of their misses (47.5%) in their opener against Lafayette (I thought George Washington liked Lafayette) and almost three quarters (74.4%) of Lafayette’s in a game where they led by 22 at the half before things got tight late. They obviously won’t have the same size advantage against our collection of bigs that they did in their opener, but it will still be vital for us to hit the defensive glass hard to keep GW from getting second and third looks and to avoid getting into foul trouble. Larsen is the key to everything on offense for GW this season, and I’m excited to see if we can reprise the performance we put up against him last year, as our post doubles frustrated him into two points on just three shots and four turnovers in 31 minutes.

I think we have an edge in quickness, especially down low, and that will become an even bigger advantage if AG or Tobey are able to get Larsen and/or Cavanaugh into foul trouble: the Colonials’ backup bigs are 6’8,” 197 pound Yuta Watanabe (who plays more like a wing) and 6’10” sophomore Matt Cimino, who was almost invisible in nine minutes against Lafayatte. I’m a little worried about Cavanaugh spotting up off of pick and pops (our one glaring weakness), as he hit 21 threes in his last year at Wake, but hopefully we can keep Gill or Wilkins on him on the perimeter.

Speaking of threes, GW is going to have to make some (they went two of 17 against Lafayette) to really have a chance to beat us, but they’re better than that mark. Joe McDonald and Paul Jorgensen, their likely starters at guard, went 0-4 against the Rams but made a combined 38% (57-150) last year. Watanabe went 0-2, too and he hit 34.8% and drilled a couple from the top of the key in the JPJ last season, and finally, they added Dartmouth transfer Alex Mitola this offseason, who hit 71 of them for the Green (at a 36.6% clip) last year.

On offense, I expect us to see a fair amount of zone (as I do all season until we prove we can take one apart), so making good, quick choices with the pass and actually making open shots (a skill that came and went against Morgan State, as we really labored to hit corner threes for a while) will be key. I like how we deploy Malcolm at the foul line extended against zones — he has the ability to hit that shot or draw help and find a big — and I think Gill would be very effective there too, especially in his likely matchup with the slower Cavanaugh. We have a lot more playable depth than GW does, so I expect us to stay fresher longer. Our second unit to play a major role in deciding this game — especially with Tony still experimenting with lineups, something I expect him to continue doing as long as things are going pretty well.

Verdict:

I think this will be a tough one., as going on the road to play an experienced opponent that has a shot to win their conference almost always is. I can see GW hurting us various ways — Larsen operating down low, Garino slashing, Cavanaugh hitting threes off of screens, McDonald hitting threes period — but can see a counter in orange and blue for every one (post traps, ,Malcolm Brogdon, Isaiah Wilkins, and Darius Thompson/Devon Hall, respectively) that I feel pretty comfortable with.

If we can run a crisp, efficient offense (not overpassing, getting into the lane first instead of settling for deep jumpers), keep Larsen from getting what he wants on the block, and limit GW’s good looks from behind the arc, I think we emerge with a seven to 10 point win. We’ll see.

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