The loss to George Mason in the 2013 season opener feels like an eternity ago. Justin Anderson wasn’t very good yet. Mike Tobey and Evan Nolte were callow freshmen trying to figure out where they belonged in their first games in college. With Bub hurt and Teven Jones suspended, Taylor Barnette played 27 minutes at point guard and Doug Browman (!) chipped in 11 in relief. I have a lot of respect for the walk ons that have come through this program over the years and I root hard for them to fill the box score when they’re in, but I’m also really, really grateful to not have to turn to the likes of Will Sherrill or Doug for heavy minutes on a regular basis. Losing to Mason (1o4th via KenPom to our 64th) on the road wasn’t even that big of an upset. Things done changed.
Mason is riding the hot hand right now. After flaccid opening losses to Mercer (66-53) and Colgate (69-60), they’ve woken up in Charleston, upsetting Mississippi and Oklahoma State on consecutive nights. Are the Colonials scary on paper? Not really. Are they scary in the way teams that catch fire and forget to know better can be? Yeah, kind of.
Two things jump out at me as improvements for Mason after their listless start, and they’re directly related. 6’11” Shevon Thompson (17-24 from the field, 39 points in two wins, 5-9 for 11 in two losses) is cleaning up under the basket and drawing more attention, which has opened things up for the trio of three point shooters they open games with (the Colonials are 17-39 — 43.6% — in Charleston and went just eight of 43 — 18.6% — in their opening pair). Thompson is a work in progress offensively (to be kind), but he chain-boards offensive rebounds and is a load (6’11,” 243) when he goes back up with them. The three point looks come from freshman guards Otis Livingston (6-21) and Jaire Grayer (8-20) and (ominous music) stretch four Marco Gujanicic (6-17). Grayer is Mason’s leading scorer for the season, but their system has seen the shots distributed almost evenly (he’s taken 43, Gujanicic, Livingston, and junior guard Marquise Moore have taken 38, and Thompson has taken 33). Thompson has a high turnover rate (29.4%) for a big, which means he could struggle with our post trap (if Mason throws him the ball).
GMU’s defense hasn’t been perfect even in this hot streak, and they’re surrendering an even point per possession on the year. They don’t force turnovers — like, at all (11.6%, 338th nationally) but have been borderline dominant on both backboards (77.4% DREB, 32.4% OREB) thanks to Thompson (13.8 rebounds per game, 18.1% of OREBS and an absurd and unheard of 38.1% of DREBS).
I like our matchup here, cautiously. I’m concerned about any team with a stretch four because history demands it, but depth, athleticism, experience, and well, talent, all favor our guys. I’m curious to see how Mike Tobey responds to being constantly attacked on the glass, and it’ll be interesting to see how they counter Malcolm and Marial with a real size disadvantage on the wing. I’m sure we’ll see some zone and need to find a way to break it (Malcolm using his size advantage and AG using his speed from the elbow is a good start, and our guys remembering their three point strokes from Friday night would be a good follow up). Finally, we’ll need to keep waterbug-types Livingston and Moore out of the lane.
Verdict:
I think we’ve got the interior depth and schemes to limit Thompson’s impact on this game, and the experienced athletes on the wing to limit Mason’s smaller guys. I think we win this game by double digits, though it probably won’t be quite what we saw on Thursday or Friday.
