Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water. Virginia's upcoming schedule is about to get tough starting with Notre Dame tonight.
No big deal, right? Here’s what’s in store:
The best offense in the ACC.
The defending national champ.
Our bitter rival.
A Hall of Fame coach on the road.
A Hall of Fame coach with a top-15 team at JPJ.
That bitter rival again, this time on the road in their cramped, weird little gym.
Mike Krzyzewski’s traveling circus at our place.
The current ACC front-runner on the road.
Jim Larrañaga and his bag of tricks at home.
Dennis Smith and whatever this NC State team is (an ACC road game at the minimum).
The current ACC fav again, this time at home.
If you want your regular season schedule to ideally prepare your team for anything it could see in March, this slate of games should do it. Now, all we need to do is win most of them to get there in good shape.
Overall, I’m OK with where we’re sitting right now. The record feels good when I type it (and I hope I never get to the point where it doesn’t, because it’ll mean I don’t appreciate what it means to sit close to the NIT banner in JPJ) and the team feels like it has more of an identity than it did two or three weeks ago.
There are still flaws. Our defense is merely watertight instead of the airtight we’re accustomed to, and we’re not a great rebounding team and probably never will be. Still, there are signs that this group is beginning to tap into an offensive versatility that could carry them past those issues on any given night — something that could make them a dangerous out in a couple of months. Right now, I feel like Virginia is a team that high seeds will want to play and low seeds won’t. That’s OK by me, given our circumstances.
Notre Dame is 17–3 and 6–1 in ACC play, but they padded their record on an empty calorie nonconference slate (the 294th-toughest in the country) full of Bryants, Loyola MDs and NC A&Ts. They played three noncon games of substance and went 1–2, beating Northwestern and narrowly falling to Villanova and Purdue. A 6–1 conference record is hard to bash in this year’s topsy-turvy anything-goes ACC, but since we’re picking nits, their record includes just two wins against teams that currently have winning records in the league. In short, Notre Dame is good, but could use some validation. That’s something we offer, so this would be a big game for the Irish even if they had beaten us since joining the ACC (they haven’t — we’re 4–0, with three of the wins coming by double digits).
Notre Dame’s offense — always their strong suit — is in fine form. The Irish are ninth in the country in efficiency for the season (120.6) and second in the ACC for league games (111.8). This is the perfect team for Mike Brey’s spaced-floor passing exhibition: they’re seasoned (starting three juniors and two seniors) even if they’re not experienced (three of their rotation guys are playing double the minutes they did last year) and employ shooters everywhere (seven of their top eight guys have hit at least 10 threes, which make up 40% of Notre Dame’s shots for the season).
Matt Farrell is the key. Farrell is the most improved player in the ACC if not the country, going from Demetrius Jackson’s 10-minute per game caddy to producing 15 and five with regularity and orchestrating Notre Dame’s attack with precision. Farrell can shoot it (43% 3PT), finish in the lane (he’s shooting 57% around the rim) and is assisting on 30% of his teammates’ baskets while he’s on the court.
Bonzie Colson has emerged to average a double-double and lead the team in scoring (15.4 ppg) with a whirling, inside-out game, V.J. Beachem (14.7 ppg) is still streaky but is going big with his streakiness (three games of six threes), and Steve Vasturia is making a run at 45/90/45 shooting splits and is an efficiency nerd’s dream in his age 30 season.
Notre Dame runs a four-out, one-in scheme that is almost improvisational in nature, whipping passes around (they assist on 61.1% of their baskets) with deliberate (the third-lowest turnover rate in the ACC) impunity. A skilled point guard (think Jerian Grant, Demetrious Jackson, now Ferrell) orchestrates off of the pick, a physical presence (Zach Auguste, Colson) rolls, and shooters (Steve Vasturia, V.J. Beachem) find daylight in every little crack and crevice in the defense. When it’s working, their ball movement keeps defenses on their heels, reacting instead of anticipating.
There are a lot of similarities in these teams. Notre Dame relies a lot on jumpers, which limits the number of fouls they draw (26.8 FT/100 shots, similar to our 26.2). They (14.5% turnover rate) are one of the few opponents we’ll see that turns it over less often than we do (15.7%). Both teams value getting back on D over offensive rebounding (30.8% ND, 28.9% us). Like us, the Irish don’t really have a dependable traditional big (Colson is 6'5,’’ Martinas Geben plays 16 minutes per game) and will probably go with four guards even more than we do. I’d say good three point shooting is another similarity, only Notre Dame clearly takes advantage of it (40% of their shot attempts) and we don’t always (32%).
Notre Dame lacks a superlative defensive stopper, but everyone has bought in and their experience helps. Five players average between 1.1 and 1.3 steals per game, and they’re very good at contesting shots without fouling. Their big weakness is obvious given how often they go with a small lineup — they only grab about two thirds of defensive rebounds. Colson (26.6% DREB, 13% OREB, 10.9 per game) holds his own on the glass no matter who he’s paired with, but he doesn’t get enough help from the guards with Geben’s minutes often limited to get more versatility on the floor.
The biggest thing for us will be not losing focus on D. Lackadaisically wandering into the thick of this game like we did against Georgia Tech won’t work, as Notre Dame will turn any lapse into an open shot and has the players to make them. Colson is an interesting matchup, and one that I think we’ll see a lot of guys on — Isaiah will probably go first, but I expect to see Devon, who is bullishly strong and an outstanding rebounder, get his share of time on him as well. Colson is not a post up big — he’s not a big at all, so much as he’s a protein-packed guard that plays like one — so we’ll need to stop him with one player.
Our depth (Notre Dame only goes seven and a half deep) will be an advantage on both ends of the floor, assuming we can use it. I’m not sure how much Jarred Reuter and Jack Salt (and Mamadi, because he seems to be on the verge of burial anyway) we’ll see.
Virginia:
G: London Perrantes — 6'2'’ sr #32
London has four or more turnovers in four of our last seven games. With him seemingly figuring out his role in the offense and stepping forward, that’s the last piece to figure out.
G: Devon Hall — 6'5'’ jr. #0
10 assists/two turnovers over the last two games.
F: Marial Shayok — 6'6'’ jr #4
Marial kept Georgia Tech at arm’s length by himself in the second half on Saturday. He’s hit eight of 17 threes since ACC play began, compared to four of 18 in the games before.
F: Isaiah Wilkins — 6'7'’ jr #21
Assuming Jack doesn’t play a ton of minutes tonight, Wilkins’s ability to get us second shots on his own will be a key to the game.
F: Jack Salt — 6'11'’ so #33
This is maybe the worst team in the ACC for Jack to try to continue his mojo against.
G: Darius Thompson — 6'4'’ jr #51
Darius has multiple assists in five straight games and 14 of our 18 this season. Last year, he managed more than one just 13 times.
G: Kyle Guy — 6'3'’ fr #5
Guy has hit three of his 14 three point tries since his last double digit outing. Maybe being back in Indiana will get him going.
F: Jarred Reuter — 6'7'’ so #31
Reuter’s played single digit minutes in three of the last four games. His offensive rebounding, a strength during non-con, has come back to earth against better competition.
ND:
G: Matt Farrell — 6'1'’ jr #5
Farrell’s ascension is real: he hung 40 points and 16 assists on Purdue and Villanova in Notre Dame’s two fall losses.
G: Steve Vasturia — 6'6'’ sr #32
Vasturia does any and everything Notre Dame needs of him, and that role — shooter, distributor, decoy, stopper — changes from game to game.
F: V.J. Beachem — 6'8'’ sr #3
Beachem has run hot and cold, but he’s hit 10 of his last 15 threes over Notre Dame’s last two games coming in to tonight.
F: Bonzie Colson — 6'5'’ jr #35
Colson is eighth in KenPom’s Player of the Year race right now. He’s top 75 in offensive rebound rate, top 50 on the defensive glass, gets to the line (38 attempts per 100 shots) better than any of his teammates, and is probably the best 6'5'’ shot blocker in the country.
C: Martinas Geben — 6'10'’ jr #23
Geben was a deepest of deep bench guys last year, but has emerged to block a few shots, set screens, and dunk some.
G: Rex Pflueger — 6'6'’ so #0
41% three point shooters has made one in seven straight games and has three assists in each of ND’s last two.
G: Temple Gibbs — 6'3'’ fr #2
Good: scored 13 and 12 against FSU and Virginia Tech. Bad: has two assists and seven turnovers over ND’s last three games.
F: Matt Ryan — 6'7'’ so #4
Taking a break from Super Bowl prep to hoist threes (45% for the season), which make up more than 90% of his shots.
Verdict:
Vegas and Ken Pomeroy both see us as one point underdogs. I understand that, but will cite depth, length, defense, (and some favoritism) in thinking we pull this game out late. The road hasn’t bothered us in recent seasons and is really not bothering us in this one, as our offense has maintained and then some away from JPJ. This could be a great one.
