Forgive me for never feeling too confident about playing at Wake. We’re 14-41 at the Joel all time, with 10 consecutive losses preceding last year’s 70-34 demolition of the Deacs. The 2007 team led by Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds that was the gold standard for post-millenium Virginia basketball before CTB arrived had a chance to clinch an outright ACC regular season championship there and instead laid a big, rotten egg against a bad Wake team. Jeff Bzdelik’s 2011 Wake team got their only ACC win against us at home in 2011, and he got us again in 2013, with his Deacs more than 100 spots below us in Pomeroy’s rankings each time. I don’t know if Lawrence Joel had beef in Vietnam with some Wahoo grad who wouldn’t follow doctor’s orders or what, but bad things seem to befall Virginia teams when we play there.
We need to shake the superstitions tonight. Coming off two feel-good home wins over decent teams, we really need a road win to bank before heading to Louisville this weekend, and Wake is as viable a candidate as anyone we’ll find outside of Chestnut Hill. The Deacs looked primed to perhaps enjoy a breakthrough season after beating five teams in Pomeroy’s top-100 before New Year’s, but their defense has cratered and they’ve lost six of seven (four by double digits) since conference play tipped off. They’re reeling and desperate.
Wake’s issues stem from trying to ramp up the tempo without quality point guard play. Codi Miller-McIntyre broke his foot before the season and hasn’t looked at all like the guy who had evolved into a dynamic presence at the one and led the Deacs in scoring last year. He’s turning the ball over on almost a quarter of the possessions he uses (23.7%) and is scoring 7.8 points per game on 37% shooting. Freshman Bryant Crawford has tried to step in, but has flown out of control as frequently as he’s made plays, and his inexperience is reflected by his turnover rate (25.7%). Without a steady hand running the show, Wake is turning it over on 20.2% of possessions as a team, which has led to a layup drill for opponents on the other end. Their attempts to leak out and create fast breaks have also killed them on the offensive glass: ACC opponents are rebounding almost 35% of their own misses, thanks to Devin Thomas being abandoned to capture boards on his own. Their defense is actually OK in the half court — they’re middle of the pack in percentage defense — but the bevy of free possessions they surrender has sunk their defensive efficiency.
On offense, Devin Thomas — a member of the Malcolm Brogdon “He’s Still There?” All-Stars — is the center of the attack, scoring 16.2 points per game. He’s not super-athletic, but he’s got nimble feet and is a decent passer for a big (2.2 assists per game). Thomas scored eight points and committed nine turnovers in the two meetings last year, and was smothered so extensively by Darion Atkins in the meeting in Charlottesville that he didn’t attempt a shot. It’ll be interesting to see how he fares without DA keying his defense. Thomas has cut his turnover rate some from last year, so he’s a threat to find our old friend Dino Mitoglou (10.9 ppg, 35.6% on threes), Crawford (12.7 per, 40.7% on threes), or Mitchell Wilkebein (34%, 7.7 per game) if we double or send the trap. Crawford is aggressive in looking to score and has been markedly better as a set shooter from deep than he has been off the dribble, so it might be smart to play him tight and force him into the defense, where he’s more likely to miss a wild shot (32.5% on twos) or turn it over. Wake loves to deploy Mitoglou to either wing via the pick and pop if we hedge and he’s fearless shooting the ball. Miller-McIntyre showed flashes of his old dribble-drive game in scoring 20 against Duke and 22 against Virginia Tech before falling back into his malaise with 12 total (4-18 shooting) in Wake’s last three games.
This game feels much like the Virginia Tech game to me: a road game in an arena we’ve struggled in against a team that needs wins. We’ll need to start strong (something that happened against Syracuse and to a lesser extent Clemson), which I think starts with London. If he moves us up the floor aggressively and is decisive looking for his own offense and shots for others, everyone else seems to follow his lead. If he lays back, we struggle to establish ourselves. Past that, I like our chances if we can keep playing efficient, low-turnover basketball and Malcolm can bring his steadier approach of the last two games on the road with us. I’m not sure how hard we’ll crash the offensive glass as a team with Wake so determined to get out and run, so the onus will be on Anthony Gill to get us second shots on offense in addition to using his speed to attack Thomas or Mitoglou, whose feet seem Mito-glued to the floor on that end.
Verdict:
We’ve had success against uptempo, high-turnover units — they keep turning it over when the easy baskets and transition chances disappear — and I think we’re primed to continue that success against a Wake team that’s on the ropes. The Deacs don’t shoot it well enough as a team and aren’t disciplined on offense. If we can manage to put ourselves in position to succeed on offense as well as we did at home last week, I think we win by 10ish.
