Game Preview: Duke/UNC Part 1 - SCACCHoops.com

Game Preview: Duke/UNC Part 1

by DukeBlogger.com

Posted: 2/9/2017 9:30:33 AM


The 18th ranked Duke Blue Devils will host the eighth ranked North Carolina Tar Heels in an ACC showdown Thursday night from the Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC.

The Tar Heels are coming off a solid 83-76 win over Notre Dame, and Duke defeated Pittsburgh 72-64 this past weekend. Each team notched a win on the road in last year’s head-to-head action with the Tar Heels winning the latest meeting by a 76-72 score at Duke.

The North Carolina Tar Heels continued to score big points in their 83-76 home win over the Fighting Irish on Sunday in a game that was re-located to Greensboro. The Tar Heels had no problem with the Notre Dame defense, shooting a solid 49%, and out-rebounded the Fighting Irish by a wide 44-24 margin. The Tar Heels spread out their scoring nicely as all five starters reached double-digits in points. Justin Jackson led the way with 16 points on 6 for 15 shooting. The 6-foot-8 forward is red hot, scoring at least 19 points in eight out of his last nine games, and is now averaging 18.6 points per game. Joel Berry II added 12 points along with seven assists in the win, but went just 3 for 10 from the field. The junior guard has slowed down a bit over his last five games but overall he is having a terrific season, now averaging 14.9 points, and leads the team with a 42% efficiency from three-point territory. North Carolina’s defense has not been very impressive this season, and they will be tested heavily in this one in front of an intimidating crowd. The Tar Heels have responded with two straight wins following their loss to Miami, and lead the ACC with a 9-2 conference record.

North Carolina continues to put up big numbers, now averaging 87.8 points per game, good for fifth in the Country, and are shooting 47.3% from the field. The Tar Heels are allowing an average of 71.6 points per game, placing them 164th overall.

The Duke Blue Devils exploded for 44 points in the second half to top Pittsburgh by a 72-64 score this past weekend. The Blue Devils shot 45.5% from the field, and while the Panthers were able to shoot 51%, they only went 2 for 14 from beyond the arc. Grayson Allen led the offensive charge with 21 points, which include five three-pointers. The junior guard is playing well right now, scoring at least 19 points in three straight games, and is now second in team scoring with 15.8 points per game. Duke’s leading scorer Luke Kennard went just 4 for 12 from the field, finishing with ten points. The sophomore guard is a great shooter, posting a team best 45.8% shooting from three-point territory, and is now averaging 19.8 points per game, ranking him third in the ACC in scoring. Duke has now won three straight games and are still alive for the top spot in the ACC standings, just 2.5 games back of North Carolina with a 6-4 conference record. A win in this one would really put Duke in serious contention for top spot in the ACC. The Blue Devils moved up from 21st to 18th in the Top 25 Rankings this week.

Duke features great scoring depth, are now scoring an average of 82.5 points per game, ranking them 20th in the country, and own a 48.2 field goal percentage. The Blue Devils are solid defensively as well, conceding an average of 67.9 points per game, placing them 69th overall.

Keys to the Game:

  • Joel Berry could exploit Duke’s lack of a true PG at both ends of the floor
  • Duke must win the battle of the boards; the stats are somewhat confusing in that it appears that UNC may be dominant but Duke has the edge in several categories
  • Perhaps the key player matchup will be Justin Jackson vs. Jayson Tatum; obviously Jackson is the more mature of the two but Tatum should be able hold his own
  • Duke desperately needs its bench to produce but there are still injury issues shortening the bench

Endgame

It’s pretty simple for Duke in this game. If Duke rebounds, and plays defense they win. If they allow UNC to outrebound them as they did last year without Amile Jefferson then they will lose. Transition defense will be paramount in this game.  UNC will push tempo on misses and makes and Duke will need to get back quickly. This has not been a strong suit of this team this year. Defense and rebounding are as much about desire as they are positioning. Duke will need to be willing defenders with heads on swivels.

In terms of how the bookies see things, both teams have the ability to play strong defense, which is especially the case with Duke who defends the three well. The under has been a common trend for the Tar Heels as of late and it will not be easy for them to have their usual success especially on the road, plus the under is 4-0 in the Tar Heels last four games. The under hit in both meetings last season and I think this will be a close hard fought battle again in this one, and the under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these teams.

I am taking Duke in this contest. North Carolina does not play strong defense which is a concern going against this Duke squad on the road. The Tar Heels are allowing an average of 76.3 points over their 11 ACC games, and 81.4 points over their four ACC road games this season. Duke is locked in right now, and I think they play the better defense. Duke is outstanding when it comes to defending the three, holding the opposition to just 30% shooting from three-point territory, so I expect them to slow down the Tar Heels offense. Duke is 11-1 at home this season, and I really like the Blue Devils at home with this reasonable spread. Duke wins 85-80.

 

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Categories: Duke, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, UNC

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