Duke kicks off the NCAA Tournament against Albany - SCACCHoops.com

Duke kicks off the NCAA Tournament against Albany

by Duke Hoop

Posted: 3/22/2013 10:12:01 AM


For the 29th year out of the last 30, the Blue Devils will take part in the NCAA Tournament. Today at 12:15 pm on CBS, Duke will face America East champion Albany Great Danes. Bad memories of last year have surfaced since the seedings were passed out and Duke landed as a #2 seed for the second straight year and the fourth in the last six years. Of the previous three times the Blue Devils were seeded twice, they haven’t made it past the Sweet Sixteen. As we saw this year with Kentucky, past performance is no great indicator of future results. Despite the loss to Maryland in the ACC Quarterfinals, this Duke team seems to be on much better footing than last year’s edition that fell to 15th-seeded Lehigh in their first game.

If we are going by past performances, Duke should be happy to end up in Philadelphia where they are 4-0 in the postseason. Duke went through Philly in 1992 en route to their second championship and in 2001 on the way to their third. Looking into Albany’s past, they’ve been in the NCAA Tournament twice – losing games to Connecticut in 2006 and Virginia in 2007. They are a surprise entrant in the Big Dance this year, winning their conference tournament after finishing in 5th place in the regular season. In the only common opponent between the two teams, Duke beat Ohio State 73-68 at home while Albany fell to the Buckeyes 82-60 in Columbus.

Looking at their Four Factors profiles and taking away the team names, it would seem this game would be closer than you’d think. There are two things Albany does better than Duke: Offensive Rebounding and getting to the free throw line. Offensive rebounding has been an Achilles Heel for the Blue Devils all season, yet they ended up with one of the best records in the nation. They’ve been able to overcome that deficiency with shooting and not turning the ball over, which is where they have the advantage on the Great Danes in this matchup.

Albany Duke Four Factors

 

While these stats give a look into how the team’s have fared against the competition they faced, these two programs could not have faced more different strengths of opponent. According to Ken Pomeroy, Duke ended the year with the 9th-most difficult schedule in the country while Albany played the 288th. As such, keep your perspective on the stats above as they are not adjusted for level of competition.

It will be interesting to see how Albany counters Duke’s big frontline of Ryan Kelly as they only have two players taller than 6’8″ on their roster. Look for John Puk (6’10″, 21.1 MPG) and Blake Metcalf (6’8″, 19.3 MPG) to take turns trying to slow down Mason Plumlee. Unless those two play together, Ryan Kelly is going to be a big matchup problem for the Great Danes and should be able to invert his offense by taking his man down low. Maryland did have some success with a smaller lineup against Duke in the ACC Tournament, but Albany doesn’t have nearly the backcourt talent that the Terrapins did. Look for Duke to erase the bad memories of last year and cruise into the second (third) round with a comfortable win.

 

This article was originally published at http://DukeHoopBlog.com. If you are interested in sharing your website's content with SCACCHoops.com, Contact Us.

 


Categories: Duke, Virginia

Recent Articles from Duke Hoop


Recommended Articles



SCACC Hoops has no affiliation to the NCAA or the ACC
Team logos are trademarks of their respective organizations (more/credits)

Privacy Policy