I think I’m starting to get the hang of how the College Football Playoff committee works week to week. Sure each week there is something to question, but nothing is set in stone until the final rankings come out.
Some things after 2 week are crystal clear though.
#1 Clemson wins out they are in the playoff
#2 Alabama wins out they are in the playoff
#3 Ohio State wins out they are in the playoff
After that there is one other near certainty. Iowa has moved up to #5, if they win out they flip flop with Ohio State as the Big 10 representative. You may not agree with Iowa at that position, but if they keep winning as an undefeated team, I can’t see them dropping more than 1-2 spots, and then they get the Big 10 Championship game.
Now here’s where it gets tricky…
It’s with the #4 seed. Currently Notre Dame holds that spot at 8-1. If Notre Dame wins out finishing the season playing #7 Stanford are they guaranteed a spot? I just can’t believe an undefeated Big 12 Champion either Baylor or Oklahoma St. gets left out. What the committee has done though is made it clear that if form holds a 1 loss Big 12 won’t make the playoffs over a 1 loss Pac 12 Champ or a 1 loss Notre Dame.
Despite having 4 top 15 teams, the Big 12′s backloaded schedule could round robin the conference right out of the playoffs. In addition the committee has made it clear the Big 12 needs to start scheduling up. Oklahoma State is undefeated and just beat previous top 10 TCU, and is only #8. #6 Baylor with a wealth of blowouts can’t overcome a schedule that featured Lamar, SMU, and Rice, as even Iowa at #5 currently is higher.
So here it is….
Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State/Iowa (Big 10 Champion) – In if they win out.
Undefeated Big 12 Champ – 90% In if they win out
1 loss Notre Dame, 1 loss Big 12 Champ, 1 loss Pac 12 champ goes to Notre Dame.
1 loss Pac 12 Champ (Stanford or Utah) over 1 loss Big 12 champ, if Notre Dame loses a game.
Of course any number of upsets could change the dynamic of the whole playoff picture.
