It’s officially March… That means March madness. Which ACC teams are locks and which are still trying to get into the Big Dance?
In my ranking system, any RPI top (100) win is a good win and any RPI top (50) obviously worth more. Any losses outside the RPI top (100) is considered a bad loss, and outside the RPI (150) are even more damaging. I’m not counting future results only if I think a team would make the NCAA’s if selections were made the day of the post.
Teams get a “*” for top 50 good wins or “*” greater 150 losses.
My RPI rankings come from, CBSSportsline.com.
This is going to be a weekly article, where I seed the ACC teams where I think they’d placed if the tournament started the same day as my posting.
Locks
(4) Virginia (27-1) (15-1) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (20) VCU, * (10) Maryland, (89) George Washington, (59) Harvard, (55) NC State, * (27) Notre Dame, * (43) Davidson, (71) Miami, (85) Clemson, * (13) UNC, * (16) Louisville, (55) NC State, * (41) Pittsburgh
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Virginia is just about to a point, where a number 1 seed is a virtual lock, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t a couple of landmines left. This week there were wins over Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, but the Hoos finish the season with tough games at Syracuse and at Louisville. If Virginia wins both, I think they will earn a 1 seed regardless of how they do in the ACC Tournament.
(5) Duke (26-3) (13-3) Projected Seed 1
Last 10 – (9-1)
Good Wins – * (6) Wisconsin, * (34) Michigan St., (53) Stanford, * (37) Temple, (76) UCONN, (51) Wofford, * (16) Louisville, * (36) St. Johns, * (41) Pittsburgh, (74) Toledo, * (4) Virginia, * (27) Notre Dame, (60) Syracuse, * (13) North Carolina, (82) Clemson, (60) Syracuse
Bad Losses - None
Notes – Duke just keeps marching along with wins over Virginia Tech and Syracuse this week. The Hokies pushed Duke to OT, but the Blue Devils prevailed. This week is Wake Forest, and then Duke heads to UNC for the rematch of a great game from earlier this season.
(27) Notre Dame 24-5 (12-4) Projected Seed 4
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – * (34) Michigan St, (65) UMASS, * (13) UNC, (71) Miami, (57) Purdue, (55) NC State, * (5) Duke, (85) Clemson
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Whoah where did that Notre Dame home loss to Syracuse come from? That loss may cost the Irish a shot at getting up to 2 seed territory. This week play at Louisville and then host Clemson.
(16) Louisville (23-6) (11-5) Projected Seed 4
Last 10 – (7-3)
Good Wins – * (44) Ohio State (97) Long Beach State, * (40) Indiana, (85) Clemson, (75) Minnesota, * (41) Pittsburgh, * (13) North Carolina, (71) Miami, * (41) Pittsburgh, (71) Miami
Bad Losses – None
Notes – Louisville’s season very nearly took a turn for the worse, when they almost lost at Georgia Tech. They won that game and then followed it up with a solid win at Florida State. If Louisville wins both of their homes games this week against Notre Dame and Virginia, then the Cardinals move into 2 seed consideration. Big week for the Cardinals.
(13) North Carolina (20-9) (10-6) Projected Seed 5
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – * (43) Davidson, * (44) Ohio State, * (16) Louisville, (86) Florida, (54) UCLA, (55) NC State, (85) Clemson, (60) Syracuse, (71) Miami
Bad Losses – None
Notes – It was a weird week for the Heels. They looked awful in a home loss to NC State, but played inspired in winning at Miami. UNC heads to Georgia Tech this week, and then hosts Duke. If the Heels win both, they can break into that top 4 seed range.
Bubble But In
(55) NC State (17-12) (8-8) Projected Seed 11
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – * (28) Boise St., * (41) Pittsburgh, * (5) Duke, (64) Richmond, * (16) Louisville, (56) Louisiana Tech, *(13) UNC
Bad Losses – (131) Wake Forest, * (168) Boston College
Notes – NC State got a huge at UNC, but gave some of it back with a loss at BC. The Wolfpack are in a tough situation. They have several elite wins, but the 12 losses are a bunch. I really don’t want them to go into selection Sunday with 14 losses. They head to dangerous Clemson this week, and then host Syracuse.
Bubble But Out
(41) Pittsburgh (19-11) (8-8)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (27) Notre Dame, (60) Syracuse, * (13) North Carolina, (60) Syracuse, (78) Kansas State
Bad Losses – * (163) Hawaii, * (215) Virginia Tech, (131) Wake Forest
Notes – Pittsburgh beat BC at home this week, but Sunday night’s loss to Wake Forest was a real blow. They host Miami and they head to FSU. The Panthers really need to win both. I’m staying with my prediction. Pitt makes the field with 22 wins.
(71) Miami (18-11) (8-8)
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – (58) Illinois, (86) Florida, * (5) Duke, (55) North Carolina State, (60) Syracuse,(85) Clemson
Bad Losses – * (150) Eastern Kentucky, (118) Florida State, (119) Georgia Tech, (131) Wake Forest
Notes – I don’t like Miami’s position heading into this week. They missed an opportunity at a big home win against UNC. This week are 2 road games. They head to Pittsburgh, in a game where the winner will feel much better about their NCAA chances. Heading to Virginia Tech is no gimme either.
(85) Clemson (16-12) (8-8)
Last 10 – (6-4)
Good Wins – * (46) LSU, * (19) Arkansas, (41) Pittsburgh, (60) Syracuse, (55) NC State, (83) High Point
Bad Losses – * (222) Winthrop, * (156) Gardner-Webb, (158) Rutgers,(118) Florida State, (119) Georgia Tech
Notes – Clemson really isn’t playing for a NCAA bid anymore, but they still have faint hopes. They beat Georgia Tech this week, and upcoming they host NC State, and then head to Notre Dame. If the Tigers win both, they will get a closer look.
(60) Syracuse (18-11) (9-7) – Not Eligible for Post-Season
Last 10 – (4-6)
Good Wins – * (48) Iowa, * (16) Louisville, (56) Louisiana Tech, *(27) Notre Dame
Bad Losses – (105) California
Notes – Syracuse went on the road and beat Notre Dame, but lost at Duke. If they were eligible for post-season play, they would have actually felt pretty good about this week. They have Virginia in the Carrier Dome, and then head to NC State. Syracuse is good enough to beat either.
Only if they win the ACC Tournament
(119) Georgia Tech (12-17) (3-14)
Last 10 – (3-7)
Good Wins – (68) Rhode Island, * (33) Georgia, (71) Miami, (85) Clemson, (98) Vanderbilit
Bad Losses – * (226) USC-Upstate, (149) Marquette, (131) Wake Forest, * (168) Boston College, (118) Florida State, * (215) Virginia Tech
Notes – Here is an odd statistic, Georgia Tech has 5 top 100 wins. The lost to Clemson and Louisville this week. The season can’t end soon enough in Atlanta. UNC comes to Atlanta on Tuesday.
(168) Boston College (10-18) (2-14)
Last 10 – (1-9)
Good Wins – * (21) Providence, (55) Harvard, (55) NC State
Bad Losses – * (207) USC, (118) FSU
Notes – Boston College played pretty well this week. They almost won at Pittsburgh, and then played their best game of the season when they beat NC State by 79-63. BC could finish with flourish, games at Virginia Tech, and then Wake Forest are winnable.
(118) Florida State (15-15) (7-10)
Last 10 – (5-5)
Good Wins – (86) Florida, (85) Clemson, (71) Miami
Bad Losses – (200) Mississippi St.,(122) Nebraska, (100) Northeastern
Notes – There had been some debate on the ACC’s most disappointing team this season. Florida State staked it’s claim with a loss at Miami, then a poor effort against Louisville at home. They host Pittsburgh this week. Even the NIT appears to be a longshot at this point.
(131) Wake Forest (13-16) (5-11)
Last 10 – (3-7)
Good Wins – (71) Miami, * (55) NC State, (64) Richmond
Bad Losses – (232) Delaware St., (118) Florida State, (119) Georgia Tech
Notes – Wake Forest seemed to have hit a bit of a wall as they had lost their last 3 games prior to beating Pittsburgh. That was a good looking win for Wake Forest. They played in the final 5 minutes. They head to Duke and Boston College this upcoming week. I think Danny Manning has done a solid job this year.
(215) Virginia Tech (10-19) (2-14)
Last 10 – (2-8)
Good Wins – * (41) Pittsburgh
Bad Losses – * (268) Appalachian St., (144) Radford, (118) FSU, (131) Wake Forest, (118) FSU, (117) Penn State
Notes – Virginia played so well at home against Duke, and nearly beat the Blue Devils. They then gave a respectable effort at Virginia. The Hokies are not playing poorly, and I think they will beat either BC or Miami at home this week.
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